It may be the first weekend of summer but the weather is unlikely to be good beach weather with rain and wind in the forecast for much of New Zealand.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says a slow moving front with sub-tropical connections could provide pockets of heavy rain across many northern and western regions of the country.
The weather news authority says a departing high to the east will see the strong easterlies over northern New Zealand tilt more northerly this weekend – and at the same time a front moving in from eastern Australia will be fed sub-tropical air by the new northerly flow.
Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says while heavy rain may not be widespread, localised falls could be heavy enough to prompt rain warnings in northern and western New Zealand.
“We basically have a front caught up in rush-hour traffic, stuck behind a big slow moving high which is gradually departing to the east. The departing high will feed humid, warm, northerlies over the upper North Island on Sunday at the same time that this slow moving front creeps in”.
The front isn’t especially wide but the slow moving nature of it, coupled with sub-tropical air could see some areas receiving heavy rain.
Latest models show pockets of heavy rain across the country on Sunday and Monday in particular for the Far North, Bay of Plenty and the South Island’s West Coast.
“Overnight lows will jump up this weekend and some very dry farms will certainly get a much needed top up of rain”.
Mr Duncan says those who live near the Grey river on the West Coast should keep up to date with possible warnings, watches and the latest weather news following severe flooding there last week.
While it’s still too early to be specific, the general feeling is that northern regions of the North Island and western regions of the South Island will be most exposed to the rain.
The government owned forecaster, Metservice, is also keeping an eye on the incoming front with moderate confidence of rain warnings along the West Coast and for Bay of Plenty and low confidence for the rest of the Top Half of the North Island.