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Evan now a category 5 severe cyclone

Earlier this morning, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported that the winds on Cyclone Evan have now increased.  They are currently at 213 km/h (115 knots) sustained with gusts to 259 km/h (140 knots).  According to the definition used by the Fiji Meteorological service and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, that makes the storm a Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone.

The storm is expected to weaken back to Category 4 status with sustained winds of 194 km/h (105 knots) within the next 18 hours.  A gradual weakening is forecast to continue after that.

Evan is also expected to turn more to the south over the next 48 hours.

All times on graphics are in GMT also known as Z or Zulu.  Fiji and NZ time zones are 13 hours ahead of GMT

Images courtesy of JTWC
By Howard Joseph,


Guest on 17/12/2012 5:47pm

Could anybody Tell me what Happens with The Island laucala please Info

hitadmin on 17/12/2012 8:04pm

Hi there, no idea sorry – perhaps try some Fiji facebook pages?  With big cyclones we’re more about the weather than the damage it may have already caused, so also keep an eye out for the latest news stories at NZ Herald, NewstalkZB and TV3 to name a few.



Guest on 17/12/2012 2:23am

What does this mean for New Zealand if the storms to turn south?

WW Forecast Team on 17/12/2012 3:01am

Guest on 17/12/2012 12:32am

Bula, Fiji meet Evan, Evan meet Fiji. Please be nice to my beloved land.

Willoughby on 17/12/2012 12:09am

The JTWC are NOT a RSMC and thus, not an official channel for cyclone information. You should be referring to the Nadi forecasts.

hitadmin on 17/12/2012 12:46am

Official in this case only means ‘fiji government’ – official doesn’t always mean more accuate.  JTWC make frequent updates and are trusted worldwide – as it is the US Govt and they update more often than Fiji Met – which can sometimes be a bit tricky to access and sometimes conflicting too.  The US Govt invests far more into cyclone research than Fiji or NZ which is why we favour JTWC – but also credit and use Fiji Met info when available.  We cover as many sources as possible.

Fiji Met also don’t fly hurricane hunters into these storms so we have to make estiamtes from reliable sources – the US govt has always been a reliable source, far more reliable than the Fiji goverment.

But let’s be clear – the different between a strong Cat4 and a weak Cat5 is about 5km/h – so this storm is still just as severe.

Philip Duncan

Guest on 17/12/2012 2:30am

Note, there are differences between the US and Australian ways of measuring average wind speed. The US uses 1-minute wind averages, which are generally greater than the 10-minute wind averages used elsewhere in the world – hence their intensity definitions (wind strengths) will differ by about 10%. Also, from the BOM website, Cat 5 cyclones require gusts greater than 279km/hr. You really should refer to the official Fiji forecasts, and not make your own assessments.

Richardmcb on 17/12/2012 3:23am

“You really should refer to the official Fiji forecasts, and not make your own assessments”.

Don’t know who you are but Phil is more often than not right on the money with his forcasts.

At the end of the day he is providing a service and giving fair warninh of what could happen with this storm. If you are going to get nit-picky I suggest you go elsewhere. Your comments don’t help anyone and certainly don’t inform.

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