A powerful high is heading to NZ this week, but next week rain and low pressure look to return to northern NZ.
The incoming high is a big one – it will not only fuel a second injection of Antarctic air and frosts over the South Island this week, but it will also bring a settled and mild weekend this weekend to much of the country as it starts to depart.
But when the high departs slowly next week it will likely encourage sub-tropical N to NE winds over parts of the country – followed by a large area of low pressure from the Tasman Sea which could trigger a W to NW change and more rain from the west, moving eastwards across dry northern NZ.
RuralWeather.co.nz currently has confidence of around 70 to 80% of rain arriving in Waikato and South Auckland next Tuesday and Wednesday (8 – 9 days from now, in the final days of May/start of June). The current forecast – which still may change – estimates around 50 or 60mm is possible next week in Hamilton, for example.
“Next week looks mild for the very end of May and start of winter” says WeatherWatch.co.nz head forecaster Philip Duncan. “Mild airflows mean daytime highs in Waikato will be around 19 or 20 degrees and overnight lows go from just +3C tonight to +14C by Sunday night as the nor’east flow kicks in”. Mr Duncan says that combination will be good for some very late season pasture growth.
Mr Duncan says those in desperate need of rain should keep up to date with the hyper-local rainfall data at RuralWeather.co.nz but also match that data up with the daily WeatherWatch.co.nz Weather Videos.
This rainfall forecast is not 100% locked in yet, but rain has been showing for May 30 – June 2 up in reliable data and modelling for close to a week now.
WeatherWatch.co.nz / RuralWeather.co.nz