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Big dry setting in as tropics come to life

Despite lows constantly trying to bombard New Zealand at the moment weak high pressure is winning the battle to keep the big rain makers offshore.  While this spells good news for many Kiwis it’s not great news for those who rely on rain water.

In fact now predicts a mostly dry end to November, despite fronts and lows trying to attack.  “We saw an attempt by a sub-tropical low to get going on Monday, it fizzled out Tuesday. We have another front coming in from the south on Thursday, latest models show that weakening too.  Then this weekend another low from the sub-tropics wants to move in, but again has a challenge on its hands due to a high over the Tasman and country” says head weather analyst Philip Duncan. 

“In a nutshell the rainmakers are being pushed back out to sea by the higher air pressure over New Zealand”.

The highs look set to bring dry weather to New Zealand, especially central and eastern areas which are furthest away from the sub-tropical and Southern Ocean lows.

“We have a lot of coastal cloud in the forecast for the next 10 days and a few days with low chances of rain or showers – no big storms or rainmakers despite them trying to get going offshore”.

Mr Duncan says it’s too early for people to be too worried about droughts as summer looks as though it will bring a “mixed set of conditions” as El Nino looks less likely.  “The current set up shows lows trying to get going but nothing really establishing. However our attention has now shifted to the tropics now that the South Pacific Cyclone season is underway, with perhaps the first tropical storm forming this week”.  

The potential tropical storm is unlikely to impact New Zealand and it’s unclear if it will even become a tropical cyclone.  “My personal feeling is that this storm won’t have the energy to develop into a cyclone but even if it does it’s likely to be short lived out at sea between Vanuatu and Fiji. One to monitor but not something we’re currently concerned with” says Mr Duncan.

The Fiji Met Service predicts a “moderate chance” or a 20 to 50% chance of the low becoming a short lived tropical cyclone over the next couple of days.



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