There is no end in sight for the relentless rain over the upper North Island and now the latest long range maps are showing things getting worse rather than getting better predicts WeatherWatch.co.nz.
The weather news authority breaks down the next two weeks of weather and what it means for you – and it shows the rain makers in our part of the world are currently running wild.
It’s been a wet and not particularly hot summer so far for our most popular holiday spots. The rain is now here to stay for northern and sometimes western NZ. This is roughly from Taupo and Gisborne northwards, with particular emphasis on Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, East Cape and Auckland, but also the western coastline of the country.
So what’s coming towards us? Head weather analyst Philip Duncan explains…
“Firstly – this weekend – we have a sub-tropical low that has already set in over the upper North Island. To make conditions even wetter, the low is being cradled by high pressure in the south and east. In other words, like a golf ball being cupped by both your hands – it ain’t going nowhere. So it will rain itself out – and that will take several days. The most widespread rain is likely Saturday and Sunday – then the low weakens but works with the high to continue a wet nor’east stream of weather coming in”.
Mr Duncan says by Monday it’s managed to push a cloudy, humid, drizzly nor’easter right down the east coast of the South Island too while sunny spells finally develop in the north.
“On Tuesday a very large high well to our south east will keep the wet nor’east flow over the upper North Island. It will link to the tropical air south of Fiji. Speaking of the tropics, it looks as though a tropical cyclone will form south east of Samoa on Tuesday. It will intensify rapidly as it drifts in that same flow, but luckily it will likely remain too far east to have any serious impact on New Zealand”.
Wednesday sees more showers over the North Island, and some lighter showers dotted about the South island.
Thursday a new low, this time developing in the Tasman Sea and by Friday it pushes into the West Coast of the country – with showers or a brief period of rain for the upper North Island.
By Friday that likely tropical cyclone will be peaking about 2000kms to our north east.
“By next Sunday the possible cyclone will be 1500kms to our north east, but will be weakening as it pushes in to high pressure.
However, the high will have an easterly flow which will help pull apart that cyclone – that easterly flow then travels past the upper North Island and towards Queensland – meaning more fuel for clouds, showers and rain”.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says despite all the rain , the driest, hottest, and sunniest weather will remain over Southland and Otago – two regions that need rain more than anywhere else in the country. “Oddly it’s the highs over the lower South Island which have been responsible not only for the very dry weather there, but also the big rain makers in the north. The highs departure from northern New Zealand has literally left the flood gates wide open for the sub-tropics – and that gate isn’t shutting anytime in the next two weeks”.
And for the weekend starting Jan 21st – look to the west and north west as more Tasman Sea fronts move in.
“This is more than just La Nina – there is a definite lack of strong highs centering themselves over central New Zealand” says Mr Duncan. “They are all to the south. Until this changes, the upper North Island can expect the status quo”.