Tropical Cyclone Winston has moved so far back north it has returned to a Category 3 cyclone, making it severe again.  
The cyclone has been tracking to the north east after reaching its closest point to New Zealand back on Sunday.  Today it will continue to track east to north east – but by tomorrow it will likely do a U turn and start tracking south west….back the way it came.

Long range models – just like last week – are still conflicted about what happens to Winston once it finally starts to properly drop south.  

Today reliable models show the cyclone tracking back towards New Zealand to our north east around Feb 23rd onwards. Some models show it dropping south and weakening well before it reaches the North Island. Other models show it coming further into the North Island.  But we’ve seen this play before, so we’ll certainly need a couple more days to lock in the future path of this cyclone with a mind of its own.

WeatherWatch.co.nz will continue with daily updates on Cyclone Winston until any threat to New Zealand is entirely gone.

– FIJI MET

– ECMWF

– GFS / WEATHERMAP.CO.NZ – RAIN & AIR PRESSURE MAP FOR FEB 23

– ECMWF WIND MAP FOR FEB 23

GFS / WEATHERMAP.CO.NZ PROJECTED SWELL MAP FOR FEB 23

WeatherWatch.co.nz will have another update on Cyclone Winston on Thursday.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz