Three sunny days in a row are about to come to an end as a large but fairly docile low moves in from the northern Tasman Sea.
WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say that while it’s not aggressive, like our recent 10 day storm, this low is slow moving and tapping into moisture rich sub-tropical air – which could produce heavy rain.
“Between the incoming low from the north west and the higher air pressure over New Zealand we can expected gales to develop in some northern regions, especially coastal areas” says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.
“The wind is created between the high air pressure and the incoming low but the main feature does appear to be slow moving rain bands, which could cause flooding”.
Mr Duncan says the slow moving nature of the low, which is tapping into sub-tropical air, is the main reason for concern with heavy rain.
Some isolated thunderstorms are also possible on Thursday night/Friday morning.
Mr Duncan says most exposed to the heavy rain will be eastern parts of Northland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and East Cape.
As the low drifts by New Zealand towards the weekend the rain could shift further east into Gisborne and Hawkes Bay.
WeatherWatch.co.nz doesn’t believe that gales will cause too many issues based on current modelling but that those with concerns should check back for updates.
The government forecaster is also suggesting this incoming low could bring severe weather.
“There is a moderate risk of heavy rain and severe gales in Northland, parts of Auckland, and Coromandel Peninsula on Thursday, and a watch has already been issued for this” says the Metservice severe weather outlook, issued on Tuesday afternoon.
“As the front moves further south, heavy rain should spread to western Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, with a moderate risk that amounts will reach warning criteria. There is also a low risk of severe easterly gales spreading to western Coromandel Peninsula, western and central North Island areas from Waikato to Kapiti, also the far northern Marlborough Sounds and far northwest Nelson” says Metservice.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says that Wednesday should be a fairly dry day for most places with sunniest weather in central and eastern areas. Rain will spread to most North Island centres during the length of Thursday.
on 20/07/2011 7:02pm
Hi,here @ Koutu,a small settlement on the Hokianga Harbour,wids have been building since Wed evening,Thursday AM now,heavy rain sporadic very heavy rain,and now getting gusts of wind strong enough to shake buildings,,AbFab if yr in a cave!!!lol
on 19/07/2011 11:55pm
When do you believe / predict the wind will be strongest on the Coromandel?
on 20/07/2011 12:57am
We think it’ll be strongest on Thursday afternoon – easing on Friday.
– WeatherWatch Team
on 19/07/2011 9:17pm
If the winter is very wet, then do we get a dry summer?
on 19/07/2011 11:17pm
Hi there – it has no bearing on our summer weather really, although nature has a way of usually evening things out eventually…but a wet summer can follow a wet winter just as easily as a dry one. Sorry we can’t give you a better answer!