Predictions prepared independently by the Weather Watch Centre based on predicted prevailing winds (Westerly). With neither La Nina or El Nino currently active we’re now in a “neutral” zone – which is likely to bring a more traditional weather pattern (Both La Nina and El Nino often have strong predicatable qualities to them, neutral periods are often less extreme with more ‘variety’…this is why’re they’re often dubbed “normal”).
A normal weather pattern for New Zealand would typically mean more westerlies – as that’s our prevailing wind.
Here’s a rough idea as to what we might expect for the rest of September and October…and remember these are generalisations – it’s Spring, so the weather is often chaotic at best!
Northland, Auckland, western Coromandel, Waikato, Central Plateau – lots of high pressure around so mainly dry skies. If those highs shift northwards you’ll be exposed to stronger westerlies and maybe squally/thundery showers moving in from the Tasman when the next southern low moves through. Clear skies at night (thanks to the highs) may mean cooler evenings. (At this stage the next 10 days look quite sunny and dry though).
Eastern Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne – sunny and warm thanks to westerlies and plenty of high air pressure. Unless there’s a low from the sub-tropics any moisture will be held back to the western side of the ranges. Cold nights when those winds die down.
Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa, Wellington, entire South island East Coast also Nelson, Marlborough and Central Otago – westerlies mean dry, warm, even hot, weather. Highs reaching anywhere from 20 to maybe 30 in the right conditions. But a southerly change will bring a shock to the system with temperatures halving. Could be cloudier over the Otago region due to those big lows to the south.
Taranaki, Manawatu, Kapiti – windy and perhaps often cloudy. Taranaki is especially vulnerable to thunderstorms and squally weather moving in from the west.
West Coast – after a pretty good winter Spring could mean more westerlies rather than those sunny, warm, easterlies. So more rain, cloud, and lower temperatures are likely.
Southland – a mix of warm days and very cold ones. Warm northerlies switching to cold southerlies and back again mean a real ‘mixed bag’ of Spring weather is on the way!