The weather pattern in November is often predictable and repetitive – this year seems no different with almost non-stop westerly quarter winds for at least the first half of the month. Long range maps suggest no great change in the start of the second half of the month either.

While not every day sees winds from the westerly quarter wind flows from other directions are not likely to linger for more than a day, meaning about 80% of each week should be dominated by nor’westers, westerlies or sou’westers. A few southerlies and nor’easters are also in the mix but as we said they shouldn’t last more than 24 hours at a time.

High pressure is mostly north of New Zealand for the next two weeks, sometimes brushing Northland and Auckland and going further.

Low pressure is mainly south of New Zealand, or weakly forming over/near us.

It’s this specific set up (highs to the north, lows to the south) that encourages the westerly set up.

At this stage La Nina hasn’t progressed any further to becoming official – and in fact the tropics closer to New Zealand are currently very quiet so we currently aren’t looking to that zone for anything big or dramatic. This may change late month or in December. There is no one locking in La Nina this summer with certainty but the building blocks are there for it to potentially develop.

The most likely severe weather for New Zealand over the next couple of weeks will be afternoon cloud build ups that may produce very localised thunderstorms and hail here and there across the country, mostly inland and towards the east. Keep an eye on our weekday InfoGraphics for more details on this – as we’ve seen over the past week regions in both islands are exposed to this and they can form with little warning.

– Image / Wind map for Wednesday next week shows plenty more westerlies coming in towards New Zealand / Weathermap (click our MAPS tab for more details).

– WeatherWatch.co.nz