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WeatherWatch June preview – Your first detailed early winter forecast

As always at the start of a new month, we look at the coming 4 weeks – and this month we’re looking at what we can expect around the country at the start of our coldest season!

Last month we suggested that Canterbury may stay drier than many other regions, despite good shower activity through April and May – and unfortunately it transpired that way – with some parts of Canterbury kicking off winter well below average rainfall levels.

Other than this, May kept to the script in most respects, with average conditions reported in many regions (Hawke’s Bay sea level snow excepted!)

Looking ahead at June, the general trend is one of more action from the sub-tropics, along with some heavy rain in store for western and northern parts of the country – while another arctic blast is on the way for the South Island later in the first week.

The forecasts below are made possible due to the work we do for Fonterra – hence the focus on dairy farming regions.

Northland & Auckland

  • Starting at the top, Northland and Auckland, are set for a wet start to the month, with showers and heavy rain in store for the first few days of the month, before clearing towards the end of the week.
  • The second week is shaping up to be drier in the main, though we’re picking that winds will strengthen around the 12th of June, after a small sub-tropical low moves in at the start of the week – bringing showers at times.
  • The final two weeks of the months are looking largely dry, as a high pressure system starts to influence conditions to the north, though the last week of June could see more rain or showers, after the high leaves our shores.

Waikato & The Bay of Plenty

  • The start of the month should follow areas further north in much the same fashion, with showers and patchy rain becoming heavier through midweek, before clearing and giving way to mostly dry conditions by the end of the week.
  • The second week is looking drier, with westerlies and generally sunny conditions dominating after a small sub-tropical low departs.
  • Weeks three and four are shaping up largely dry, with the same high pressure system influencing these parts as further north – before more wet weather could finish the month after that high departs.
  • The Bay of Plenty looks driest at this stage, as westerlies will push most of the weather into the Waikato.

Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay & Wairarapa

  • These parts start fairly dry, though showers are possible north of Mahia and parts of the Wairarapa at times in the first week – otherwise sunny spells and dry weather until the second week.
  • There’s not much to write home about for the rest of the month either, with that small sub-tropical low coming around the 9th of June the only threat of note early on.
  • The month should finish fairly dry, with westerly quarter winds and sunny skies dominating proceedings in general.

Taranaki, Manawatu, Wanganui & Horowhenua

  • Some places are in for a wet start – with showers about western Taranaki and towards Central Plateau to kick off the month, while patchy rain and dry spells then take over for pretty much everyone, then clear towards the end of the first week.
  • The second week follows a similar pattern, with rain and showers affecting most placesthrough until the 10th, after which dry and windy conditions could prevail around the 13th – with strengthening westerlies the culprit here.
  • For the latter half of June, at this stage it’s looking like the large high pressure system to the north could force cooler showery southwesterlies across these regions – though as we know in New Zealand – weather systems don’t always behave as they should, and so we will have more on how it’s shaping up as we get closer to the time.

The West Coast

  • The Coast is looking (surprise surprise) wet to start, with heavy and patchy rain in store for the first week, after which a spell of mainly dry weather then precedes another wet few days.
  • The 11th-13th currently look wet and windy, after which the latter half of June will be dominated by westerly quarter winds, and a mix of sun, cloud and showers.

Canterbury & Northern Otago

  • The first week of June is a mix of patchy showers, drizzle and brief rain, ahead of a very cold change from the south – coming from Antarctica – by the 5th, temperatures will drop considerably, and lead to likely snow flurries and hail showers – coming down as low as a couple of hundred metres (or lower) in isolated flurries. We’ll have more on this in the coming days, it’s looking fairly serious – and heading into week two, those temperatures will stay low.
  • The second week starts cold, with severe frosts possible in sheltered parts of both regions, before sunny conditions move in – and a possible band of showers north of Christchurch.
  • Dry conditions then set in, along with northwesterlies – and heading into the last two weeks those conditions should stick around – mainly dry in the east, along with a lot of westerly quarter winds – and the chance of southerlies bringing some brief showers.

Southland, Central & Coastal Otago

  • These regions follow much the same pattern to start with, with patchy rain from the north followed by a sudden cold change, as that antarctic southerly arrives on the 4th and 5th of the month.
  • Snow is probable down to low levels on those days, then turning to frosty conditions as a high pressure system moves in on the 6th and 7th.
  • Some showers should turn up around the middle of the month, along with strong to gale westerlies and rain for a time, and the second half of June is looking very unsettled.
  • There will be plenty of strong westerly quarter winds, as well as the chance of another southerly blast sometime in the latter part of the month.

– Stay up to date and watch this space for more information on the start to winter, as we’ll be bringing you more details into next week!


* please note, these forecasts come from the work we do for diary giant Fonterra – and is mostly dairy farming region focused.


Guest on 31/05/2015 7:36pm

Christchurch continues to be dry, just the 17mm of rain (and even some of that is recored as metling frost!) plus a high of 27C in May! I used to live in Auckland and I see those people have had 120mm+ in May.  I don’t miss that wet, miserable place at all.  Give me dry eastern weather any day!!

colleen wadsworth on 31/05/2015 3:13am

marlborough isn’t covered nearly enough in weather reports. not at all in this report

WW Forecast Team on 31/05/2015 3:44am

Hi Colleen. Your local media rejected our offers to provide them with free regular news updates, which is why we don’t have much Marlborough focused news stories. Your local media is very MetService focused so hard for us to get news out there. With regards to this specific report – it is funded by Fonterra so is focused on dairy regions. To be honest with you the forecast for Wairarapa in this report (and the eastern North Island) is very similar to Marlborough for the month of June, so if you read that it will be helpful.  Same with the Canterbury forecast.



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