Latest: Tracking Cyclone Gabrielle’s centre + Rain in the south (+21 Maps)
14/02/2023 6:45am
Updated 7:45pm Tuesday — This evening Cyclone Gabrielle’s centre is finally slowly tracking out to sea off from East Cape, in a south-easterly direction. The central air pressure has risen steadily today and was estimated to be around 970hPa at 6pm.
This means the storm is slowly unravelling and easing – but it’s such an intense storm it’s going to take a few days to do that properly, as it moves away past the Chatham Islands.
Severe Gales and areas of heavy rain are still likely in the North Island overnight as Gabrielle slowly departs.
Wind directions continually shift with a storm like this, so that means some areas get a break from the weather – as others get it more intense.
Auckland region and parts of Northland remains a wind tunnel for the sou’west change behind the cyclone. Gusts over 120km/h are still possible tonight but are expected to ease gradually overnight from the peaks of today, and slowly ease further across Wednesday. Thursday looks to be remarkably calmer.
Gales in Taranaki will also slowly ease back along with Auckland region and Northland.
Wet and windy weather around East Cape, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay should mostly ease – keep up to date with official MetService warnings and Civil Defence advice.
Hopefully overnight many in the North Island will notice conditions improving as air pressure continues to rise, due to Gabrielle’s continued weakening and departure from the North Island. Certainly across Wednesday we expect many people in the upper and north eastern North Island to notice a difference.
It will still be windy and wet around Wellington and Wairarapa and some other isolated spots too.
For details on how Gabrielle will affect CANTERBURY, please see the story and rain graphs further down the page.
- Please stay up to date with MetService’s current warnings here.
- Refer to the hourly forecasts at WeatherWatch.co.nz and RuralWeather.co.nz as a guide to see likely peak wind and rain where you are. Forecasts may shift around a few hours and rainfall totals and wind gusts may also vary due to the enormous size of this storm and also how it interacts with the hills and ranges around us as it moves. The general trends tend to be very accurate and helpful for working out peak times and when conditions generally start to ease.
CYCLONE GABRIELLE STARTS TO TRACK EAST TO SOUTH EAST AGAIN
The centre of ex tropical Cyclone Gabrielle sat nearly stationary overnight close to, or over, Great Barrier Island. Today this low centre has started to track SE and we have more very unsettled weather to go.
Heavy rain about Northland finally backs off from this afternoon. It stalled there longer (and in parts of Auckland) increasing rainfall totals, slips and flooding overnight/this morning.
Very heavy rain south of about Napier eases this afternoon however the rest of the day could see downpours and thunderstorms about the eastern North Island.
More severe weather is coming for East Cape today as the centre of Gabrielle tracks in – bringing with it wind and rain to Gisborne and northern Hawke’s Bay again too.
Very strong southerly winds tend more southwest as today progresses over the North Island and through Cook Strait, winds will be strongest in the west with gales likely, and severe gales about coastal areas, easing later today or overnight.
Some heavy rain for the northeastern corner of the South Island and finally about the ranges of Fiordland isolated showers develop this afternoon, some could be heavy with thunder.
The position of Cyclone Gabrielle this morning is where computer modelling said it would be over 7 days ago. We have a story here about how accurate the modelling has been for this event.
For today’s latest watches and warnings from Metservice please check out this page here.
Also check out our daily videos here at WeatherWatch by Philip Duncan, where he gives all the nitty gritty on this storm.
MSLP / Rain map – Tue 14th Feb 2023 10:00am – Weatherzone.com.au 
MSLP / Rain map – Tue 14th Feb 2023 7:00pm – Weatherzone.com.au
RAIN FOR CANTERBURY – TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY
We are still on track to have some rain for Canterbury, today for parts of North Canterbury then into Wednesday rain moves southwards. Rain may be heavy later on Wednesday about coastal parts then starting to clear from the south on Thursday.
In the below accumulative rainfall map we can see rain showing up for Canterbury, some rain should push into South Canterbury but Mid Canterbury northwards is where totals are higher.
MSLP / Rain map – Wed 15th Feb 2023 10:00pm – Weatherzone.com.au
Below are some rainfall graphs and figures for Canterbury. You’ll note South Canterbury has lesser totals and further north has larger totals. Little River has the potential to flood in scenarios like this so keep an eye out there later on Wednesday and overnight. The Kaikoura area should be watched today also, a rain warning is out from Metservice for Kaikoura. And despite the figures below, rain falling in hills / ranges could be up to 50 percent higher.
Timaru Tue = 2mm – Wed = 10.3mm – Thu = 0.8mm – Total = 13.1mm
Ashburton Tue = 5.3mm – Wed = 28.8mm – Thu = 5.6mm – Total = 39.7mm
Leeston Tue = 7.4mm – Wed = 30.2mm – Thu = 8.5mm – Total = 46.1mm
Little River Tue = 11.9mm – Wed = 41.2mm – Thu = 13.5mm – Total = 66.6mm
Kaikoura Tue = 50mm – Wed = 25.3mm – Thu = 21.5mm – Total = 96.8mm
A high pressure system moves over the South Island on Friday then the North Island on Saturday bringing an end to this weeks events.
**An updated video from today/Tuesday is now attached to this story**
- WeatherWatch.co.nz – By Aaron Wilkinson & Philip Duncan.
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C H KENNEDY on 14/02/2023 5:53pm
Philip Duncan presents the weather with the most informative accurate perspective. Philip your the bomb. Thankyou for your effort and amazing information . So appreciated.
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Rebecca on 14/02/2023 8:08am
Such an informative update !! Thanks for all your efforts and comms on this – top notch!
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AlanS on 14/02/2023 7:28am
Best weather site. Excellent explanation. Keep doing this.
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Jim McK on 13/02/2023 7:38pm
I’m in Scotland and travelling into Auckland next weekend; that’s the best weather briefing I’ve ever listened to. Well done to you all there!!
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WW Forecast Team on 13/02/2023 9:40pm
Safe travels to NZ and have a great trip here! Thanks for the kind feedback too!
– WW
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Sandra on 13/02/2023 7:25pm
You explained the weather map well thanku, probably one of the better weather readers I’ve listened too
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David Hurle on 13/02/2023 6:36pm
Great coverage as always WW. We dodged a bullet so far in Mangatangi but hey lost t a car by trying to see Elton. Water tanks are full gardens good and moist. Hoping just for monthly top ups for balance of the soggy summer.
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