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The pattern of “spring like” unsettled weather continues this weekend with yet another rain bearing front moving in. However unlike last time I’m down playing the effects of the rain for northern New Zealand.

That past front that moved in on Monday completely fizzled as it moved into Waikato, Auckland and Northland – and I think this one could do the same. As I write this blog on Thursday night our latest weather data says there’s just a 10% chance of rain for the Bay of Islands, 30% for Whangarei, 40% for Auckland and 60% for Hamilton.

In New Plymouth it’s 90% which indicates that Taranaki will probably be the cut off mark for significant rain – anywhere north of that will be probably receive only a brief period of showers.

This low could create some pretty heavy rain for the mountains and ranges in the west – places like Mt Taranaki, the Tararua Ranges, and most of the western and northern ranges of the South Island. If you’re planning on tramping or mountain biking this weekend just keep an eye out for the latest rain warnings as I think some will be issued.

The low is similar in size to Monday’s low but the north westerly ahead of it should be a little stronger. That means eastern areas of both islands will be hot on Saturday and then hot for the North Island’s east coast on Sunday. Temperatures in the late 20s possibly 30 inland.

Farmers in western areas will certainly appreciate the rain and gardeners will enjoy it too. Rain is likely to make it into parched areas of Canterbury but like earlier in the week the direction of the low (coming in from the west) doesn’t favour anything significant for the east.

Pictured above: Dramatic storm clouds bring much needed rain to the Napier area as viewed from Te Mata Peak, Havelock North. Photo / Warren Buckland.