–Exclusive —

The Fiji Meteorological Service has confirmed this morning that a tropical low has now formed east of Vanuatu. 

The tropical low is expected to become a tropical cyclone before the end of Sunday with cyclone status possible as early as Saturday night.  WeatherWatch.co.nz says it looks like it may become the largest low pressure system in Australasia next week as it tracks south east, to the north east of the North Island.

The storm, which WeatherWatch.co.nz says could reach category four status, is predicted to develop near three populated nations, however despite it’s size and location Head Weather Analyst Philip Duncan says the threat to land may not be high. 

“There is no doubt that if this storm forms, as the models have been predicting all week, it will be a large scale cyclone.  However it seems that Mother Nature has plans to send this one out over the open waters and not into populated places, which will be of huge relief after we saw what Yasi was capable of”.

ECMWF long range weather map showing the potential cyclone next Wednesday.  The colours around the low indicate strong to hurricane force winds.  As you can see the rest of the region is mostly calm.

The low has developed amongst a large belt of thunderstorms around Vanuatu.  

Mr Duncan says this low will deepen then quickly move in a south easterly direction.  “It will brush the southern side of Fiji’s main island bringing some wind and rain but severe weather currently looks unlikely”.

And for New Zealand?  “Well we expect some cloud and wind but the models are still indicating it will be too far east to cause major weather concerns here, however the system looks like it will still be a severe cyclone when it tracks into New Zealand’s waters on Wednesday or Thursday and that could bring dangerous seas”.

Rough seas are most likely around the middle or end of next week and mainly around East Cape, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay.  “While the weather may well be settled along those eastern beaches next week it’s very important that we understand what is happening out at sea.   Large waves and invisible rips are highly likely for a time later next week along all east coast beaches of the North Island”.

The predictions are based mostly on long range computer models from Europe which, for this cyclone season, have been highly accurate, according to WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters.  Yesterday America’s long range modelling service also started predicting the low would form.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says despite the large scale of the predicted storm people should not panic as it’s unlikely to make a direct hit here and at this stage no severe weather is predicted in New Zealand however those who live in north eastern New Zealand are advised to stay up to date with the latest developments on this system.

Residents in Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Tonga should check with their local weather providers for the latest warnings, watches and marine forecasts.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz