It’s not the news northerners will be wanting but with every computer model update the chances of rain reaching New Zealand from a tropical depression become slimmer and slimmer.
WeatherWatch.co.nz is not fully ruling out rain arriving at the end of next week from TD01F (the first tropical depression of the 2010/11 South Pacific Cyclone Season) but says for the low to bring rain here the high over the South Island must weaken.
The past 3 model runs have showed the high remaining strong – pushing back against the low and limiting the chances of rain spreading south on to the country.
Easterlies and increased cloud cover still look likely from Wednesday to Friday.
However it’s a long way out yet and certainly remains something to watch.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says that while the low is “encouraging” that wetter weather is starting to build around the waters of New Zealand, farmers in the upper North Island should be preparing for a very dry December.
Meanwhile Fijian forecasters at the cyclone centre say the low has a “high chance” of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
WeatherWatch.co.nz believes if a cyclone does form it will be weak and short lived, based on the latest models.
on 28/11/2010 12:10am
The GFS never showed the low making it to NZ anyway.
That’s the model I tend to go by 😉
on 28/11/2010 12:59am
We use both GFS and ECMWF. We find ECMWF usually has a very good track record for long range predictions whereas GFS is better for short term.
Initially GFS has the low well east to NZ while ECMWF had the low over Northland… it seems the two have met about halfway now!
The next couple of days will be interesting.
– WeatherWatch Weekends