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Tropical Cyclone risk remains high, but will rain reach NZ?

The Fiji Meteorological Service has this evening maintained their “high risk” forecast for tropical cyclone development from the first tropical depression of this year’s South Pacific cyclone season.

The latest forecast out of Nadi says there is still a “High chance” TD01F will grow into a Tropical Cyclone this Sunday or Monday between Vanuatu and Fiji but have downgraded Tuesday’s prediction to “moderate chance”.

This would back up’s earlier prediction that said latest computer models produced by other organisations around the world show the low unlikely reaching the intensity to become a tropical cyclone.

With these current predictions by Fiji if a cyclone did form on Sunday or Monday it would likely “die” by Tuesday.

It will certainly be an area to watch though, with the depression tracking away from Vanuatu and towards western Fiji this evening. also maintains the tropical depression will reach New Zealand around Wednesday and Thursday – potentially bringing some rain to dry parts of the nation. 

Just how much rain falls is still very uncertain.

The latest data this evening shows the anticyclone over the country next week may battle to hold ground over New Zealand – not allowing the moisture laden air from the low to track far enough south to bring rain to Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and East Cape. says that for rain to arrive the high will need to weaken a little.

In Friday’s Tropical Cyclone Outlook predicted “low confidence” of the depression bring “storm conditions” to New Zealand but had “moderate confidence” that it would bring some rain to dry regions across northern New Zealand on Thursday.  

This evening the data shows a reduced chance of rain for those northern regions, but forecasts maintain that the data can fluctuate significantly this far out.

We’ll closely monitor the low and bring you another update on by noon Sunday.


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