Updated 3:01pm — A narrow band of very heavy rain is currently moving south across parts of Northland. While conditions have now eased in Kaitaia and the Far North, the rain – which is torrential at times – is now moving towards Whangarei, and later Auckland.
Some people will just have a period of rain or showers with little else to notice – but for others the downpours will be heavy enough to cause surface and flash flooding and some minor to moderate flooding in localised areas recently hit by flooding.
Our feeling is that the risk of a tornado is still there but is quite low.
In Northland, rain with torrential falls, moving south across the region this afternoon and clearing this region this evening.
There is also a ‘moderate risk’ of isolated surface flooding in localised downpours, with a low to moderate chance of more widespread minor flooding.
Thunderstorms are highly possible with the heaviest downpours.
In rural areas of Northland, there is estimated to be a 30% chance of a funnel cloud and 20% chance of a tornado in the right conditions, while Friday will bring further rain, with heavy showers a possibility again. Saturday may also see heavy showers in Northland as the centre of the low moves in.
While there are some flooding risks on Thursday PM and Friday in Northland, they will be in more isolated pockets under the heaviest downpours – and not a prolonged day or two of rain as we saw this past weekend.
In Auckland, look out for showers turning to rain around rush hour and into the early evening. Some falls will be heavy for some suburbs with a low risk of thunder, although a slightly higher risk north of the city. Like Northland there is a risk of some localised surface flooding. Heaviest rain is likely between 5pm and 7pm for northern Auckland and 6pm and 8pm for southern Auckland, at this stage.
There’s about a 25% chance of an isolated funnel cloud and a less than 20% chance ofa tornado forming.
On Friday, it’s looking like the wet trend will continue, with heavy showers possible.
Generally speaking, this low is large but not aggressive – just isolated pockets of very heavy rain and possible thunder & that risk of an *isolated* tornado.
Another thunder risk exists tomorrow for nothern areas, again in isolated pockets.