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Thursday’s national forecast

Ex Tropical Cyclone Cook moves onto northern New Zealand around midday today then moves southwards down the country in the evening and overnight. Very strong winds and heavy rain will be associated with this low and the areas most affected will be determined by where this deep low moves although it is likely to be regions in the north and northeast of the North Island then the lower North Island, upper South Island and eastern South Island overnight.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
A difficult forecast, we have ex Tropical Cyclone Cook moving down over the upper North Island during the day. A subtle move regarding the position of this low could bring a different outcome or perhaps weather that is not as severe for some regions. Generally speaking the current outlook sees areas of rain become heavy during the morning in the north then moving into the Bay Of Plenty by midday, torrential falls possible then easing during the evening as this low moves southwards. Winds will strengthen from the east with severe to storm force gales possible (outside chance of hurricane force about eastern coastal fringes) about eastern areas then winds change around to the northwest once the low moves through. Northwest winds could be equally as strong for a time when the change kicks in then easing away fairly quickly.
Highs: 21-24

Western North Island (including Central North Island)
Rain with heavy falls possible, easterly winds strengthen then change gusty north to northwest overnight with rain easing.
Highs: 19-20

Eastern North Island
Rain, heavy at times then clearing overnight. Northeasterlies strengthen rising to gale. Severe gale to storm force winds could develop about Gisborne from afternoon, moving into the Hawkes Bay by evening then further south overnight. An outside chance of winds up to hurricane force near the coast. Winds changing to a strong northerly overnight.
Highs: 18-21

The odd shower turns to rain this afternoon, heavy falls possible in the evening / overnight as gusty southerlies change gale to severe gale northerly. Winds through Cook Strait overnight may be very strong.
High: 19

Marlborough & Nelson
Patchy drizzle or rain, rain becoming heavy in the evening as southeasterly winds strengthen. Rain may bring torrential falls from evening (more so about Marlborough) then easing overnight as ex TC Cook passes near by, strong southerlies change to the north overnight.
Highs: 17-19

Areas of rain or drizzle, light winds pick up from the east later. Overnight rain may become particularly heavy with strong winds (especially near the coast).
Highs: 13-15

West Coast
A few showers and plenty dry spells (perhaps some sun is possible), winds from the east or southeast. From evening rain chances go up about North Westland as southeasterlies freshen.
Highs: 19-21

Southland & Otago
Areas of rain or drizzle (possibly heavy about coastal Otago this morning) gradually easing during the day. Breezy east to southeasterly winds.
Highs: 15-16

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson –


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