UPDATED
New Zealand is in the line for thunderstorms this afternoon, evening and again tomorrow as the first Tasman Sea low of the year brings hot, humid and unstable weather conditions to the country.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says afternoon heating will produce thunderstorms later today across inland parts of New Zealand while a cold front coming in from the Tasman Sea has the potential to bring damaging thunderstorms to some western and northern regions today and tomorrow.

Story continues below, also MetService maps of thunderstorm risks for today and tomorrow…

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“A hot northerly flow over the country today, combined with afternoon cloud build ups, is likely to produce heavy showers about inland parts of the lower North Island however an approaching front tonight may see more violent weather affecting more populated centres such as Auckland, New Plymouth, Kaitaia and Whangarei”.

Mr Duncan says the front is already producing a huge amount of lightning offshore.  “The northern Tasman Sea is alight with lightning at the moment as this front moves closer.  While I expect some of those storms to ease when they make landfall overnight tonight it will mean an increased risk of thunder, hail and possibly even isolated small tornadoes in western coastal areas of Taranaki and Northland”.

MetService is also expecting similar weather with their thunderstorm outlook showing a number of places in the firing line.  MetService says all of Northland and Auckland, along with Great Barrier Island, the northern tip of Coromandel Peninsula and about New Plymouth have a “moderate risk” of thunderstorms tonight and the chance of “weak tornadoes”.

MetService has also issued rain warnings for Bay of Plenty and Rotorua.  “In the 12 hours from 3am Thursday expect 60 to 90mm of rain, especially in the ranges. Heaviest intensities of 15 to 20mm per hour in thunderstorms”.

This afternoon the MetService also says there’s a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms across the bottom half of the North Island.  “An increasing northerly flow is expected to lead to high temperatures this afternoon over the southern half of the North Island, and a consequent destabilisation of the atmosphere. There is a high risk of thunderstorms south of about Dannevirke, mainly about the Tararuas and southern Ruahines,accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities 15 to 25mm per hour.” says MetService.

“A moderate risk of thunderstorms extends to cover most of the rest of Wairarapa,also north to the central plateau, then westwards across to Wanganui and south Taranaki. Localised heavy rain with intensities 10 to 20mm per hour is likely in this area”.

“A low risk area surrounds this and extends across to northern Hawkes Bay”.

MetService says there is also a low risk area about north Canterbury and southern Marlborough. 

Tomorrow afternoon will see a “high risk” for thunderstorms across northern parts of the North Island with moderate risks for much of the North and South Island.
 

Maps / MetService

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