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The week ahead, still a mixed bag but good weather for most at some point in time

Well last week was certainly tricky in terms of forecasting. A low pressure system that hung around the North Island most of the week was a challenge to forecast and every subtle move it made in data looking forward made a big difference to the forecast for some centres.

One second Wellington looked like it may have a sunny week with periods of cloud then the next day showers or drizzle patches ended up looking likely. Not often do I see such big variation in weather models, apart from Sam Wallace on TVNZ’s Breakfast the morning of the Sevens tournament who was a Gladiator, human hotdog then a baby all within 3 hours.

The week ahead may not be as challenging but still has
plenty of variety. So settled periods, sunny spells and showers look
likely for all at some point this coming week with highs and lows
mulling about. So let’s get to it.

Today a low pressure system sits off to the northeast of New Zealand spreading a southerly
airflow over the North Island, regions out west can expect a mostly
sunny day with south to southeasterly breezes. Winds tend more southwest in the afternoon
Waikato northwards and there is the risk of a brief isolated shower too.  Along the east coast and about Wellington expect patchy rain or drizzle, southerlies will ease during the day.

In the South Island a ridge of high pressure brings mostly sunny weather with light winds, easterly quarter winds in
the east. Canterbury sees morning cloud break to sunny spells, about Marlborough
cloud may a bit more persistent with odd drizzle patch possible at times near the coast during the day and clear spells not moving in till later in the day or overnight. Inland Marlborough sees sunny spells today with dry weather and easterlies from afternoon.

Tomorrow brings sunny spells to the North Island in the west with westerly breezes. There may be
a few isolated afternoon showers about inland Bay Of Plenty, the Central North
Island and southern Waikato. For the east coast and about Wellington, any
morning drizzle clears with sunny spells developing in the afternoon, southerly
breezes die away. Isolated showers may spring up about the ranges of Hawkes Bay and Gisborne during the afternoon also.

The South Island has mostly sunny weather in the east with east to northeast breezes, cloud gradually increases in
the west ahead of a front in the Tasman Sea. This front brings showers
to Fiordland from morning which then spread north later in the day or overnight. High cloud
increases about the lower South Island during the day with the odd spot of rain
about Southland from afternoon.

On Wednesday the east coast of the North Island finally gets some good weather, expect northwesterly winds
and some high cloud with warm temperatures. Becoming cloudy in the west
with northwesterly breezes, showers move through for most during the afternoon with a west to
southwest change. The South Island sees showers on the West Coast and a cool
southerly change spreads north along the east coast during the day bringing
showers, some of which could be heavy with thunderstorms about Canterbury. Marlborough
remains mainly dry.

Moving onto Thursday we are all finally seeing the light of the weekend (which is actually looking reasonable at
this stage weather wise). An anticyclone sits in the Tasman Sea
spreading a west to southwesterly airflow over New Zealand. Expect cloudy spells on the west coasts of
both islands, the odd shower is possible at times also. The east coast of the
North Island and Marlborough is looking great with warm temperatures and light winds.
South of about Banks Peninsula a cool west to southwesterly airflow
delivers some cloud and the odd shower, mainly near coastal parts.

Friday is a very similar looking picture to Thursday although winds are looking to be lighter and showers
not as frequent as the anticyclone in the Tasman makes more of an
influence on our conditions.

Homepage image / Chris Johnson

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson –


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