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The Last Week of 2011

Now that Christmas is behind us and Boxing Day is upon us, our attention turns to New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

With a very settled Monday on tap for New Zealand, you are probably wondering if the end of the week and the beginning of the new year will be just as quiet.

You are in good company. The cards have been dealt for the end of the week forecast. The problem is that they are still face down.

Here’s the deal; we use several different computer models to guide us in our forecasting. Right now, these models are at odds as to what is going to happen with what used to be Tropical Cyclone Fina. One model says that a big ridge of high pressure over the South Island will head off to the east by the end of the week.  That will open the door for the remnants of Fina to get close enough to us to create a very wet end of the week and beginning of 2012 for much of New Zealand.

Another model says, that same ridge of high pressure will be in a hurry to go nowhere.  That means New Zealand will remain under its shield and we will remain dry.  Or at the very least, limit the amount of rain we will get from the former Fina.

So which is right?

That’s a good question. One way to find an answer is to look at trends. Which models are consistent over a period of a few days? Which models make more sense? Yes, some of them can really stuff up a forecast. The computer models are great at guiding us in our forecasts. But sometimes they try to guide us right off a cliff.

The bottom line is; at this point showers and stormy conditions look pretty likely for the North Island and iffy for the South Island for the period Thursday through Sunday.  However, that could change.  And will these days be complete wash-outs?  Or just a few hit and miss showers and storms?  Over the next 24-48 hours, we will get fresh data.  We will be able to paint a better picture with the trends we see developing.  We will start to see a clearer picture and we will be able to pass that on to you.

Stay tuned…

By Weather Analyst Howard Joseph


Mark on 26/12/2011 6:49am

It seems so long ago that the Far North had clear sunny skies – this December has been very dreary. When will we see blue skies up here again?

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