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Tasman trouble brewing

Satellite maps are this afternoon confirming the development of a low that could have quite an impact on New Zealand at the end of the week and into the weekend.

The developing low and frontal clouds associated with it can be clearly seen on the latest satellite image at

The latest satellite shot clearly shows the low forming over land, just north of Melbourne, while fronts stretch up most of the east coast of Australia as far north as Queensland.  It’s this early development over land that will help produce a very large low pressure system that will engulf much of the Tasman Sea by Thursday, then cross New Zealand on Friday and the weekend.

With a large high currently over New Zealand it will mean a strong pressure gradient between the two systems and as the high moves out into the Pacific Ocean on Thursday and Friday the strong winds will move in.

Gale force winds are likely in exposed areas across the North Island on Friday and Saturday but with the low so large says much of the wind energy will be spread over a larger area, lessening the chances of severe, damaging, gales.

However large, slow moving rain bands are predicted to move in to western and northern facing areas starting in the South Island on Thursday and slowly spreading into the North Island during Friday and Saturday.

And today MetService said in their severe weather outlook that they have high confidence of rain warnings being issued for Bay of Plenty, Taranaki and much of the West Coast.  They also had moderate confidence of severe gales about Taranaki and moderate confidence of rain warnings in other western regions including Nelson and the Whangaui River catchment area. 

A low confidence remains for Auckland, Northland, Coromandel Peninsula, Hauraki Plains and Fiordland.


Sarah on 10/08/2010 5:45am

Is the latest low going to affect the manawatu? we are having an outside function so would like to know in advance if we should be looking for an alternative venue.What’s your advice?

Rachel jennings on 10/08/2010 3:21am

Hello there

Is the new system going to affect Canterbury? Just wondering.

WW Forecast Team on 10/08/2010 4:26am

Hi Rachel,

Looks like a period of rain and gusty winds at this stage on Friday.  Nothing too severe on the cards just yet with fairly mild conditions on the way (after a couple more cold nights!).


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