Weather conditions this week will continue to improve for most places however stormy weather south east of the country remains – and is likely to dredge up more cold air before the week is done.
Several low pressure systems, left in the wake of the storm last week, remain east to south east of Dunedin – and in the coming days will merge into one very large low.
This large system will work with a fairly small high west of New Zealand to create a surge of cold air at the end of the week.
It’s important to note this system will be well east of the country and won’t be pushing across New Zealand – rather, it’s growing to our east and it’s growth will see it brush the eastern side of the nation.
The air flow isn’t super chilled but is enough to see highs drop back down to single digits again for most southern main centres this Friday and Saturday. Central Otago may drop to -6 or colder this coming Friday night as skies clear behind the southerly.
However this cold change is mostly limited to southern and eastern regions of New Zealand. The rest of the nation will see mostly sunny weather with just a few coastal showers in the west and south.
Temperatures for the North Island will creep back into the mid teens with overnight lows slowly climbing back up too.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says early July is also looking unsettled.
WeatherWatch.co/nz predicted in February a high risk of a “chaotic” weather pattern this winter – bringing a “high risk of a repeat of the August 2011 winter storm” along with warm sub-tropical lows.
A sub-tropcal low will also brush the Far North at the end of the week – but latest data suggests it may remain too far north to bring much rain to the upper North Island.
Long range models also show this warm low combining with a cold low east of the Chatham Islands next week and turning into a major storm – thankfully this next winter storm looks likely to be east of the International Date Line, well away from New Zealand.
Image / Frost, up close on a trampoline, Deb Alexander, Wanganui