The summer of ’07/’08 is one that will be remembered for the warm and dry 3 month period overall and many people are wondering if can we have 2 summers in succession of a similar nature-farmers are hoping not!.
To be honest, it’s unlikely but not impossible.
After a soggy winter, it looks as if we are in a ‘ neutral phase’ and not either a ‘La Nina’ or ‘El Nino’ pattern. This suggests that we will have warm and settled periods but also cooler moments with some showery conditions.
The most vulnerable area appears to be in some eastern parts of the country and an example was earlier in the week when much of the nothern, western and southern parts of the nation experienced rain and a few heavy falls in some cases too.
This system struggled to deliver many showers out east, if any at all and some very warm conditions took place and the evapotranspiration figures went through the roof and remembering that this was all taking place in late spring. A prolonged dry spell is likely throughout December and January but hopefully little relief in February with some ‘muggy ‘ rains.
I believe that hot norwesters could be a concern over the summer months from Gisborne down to Otago.Already there have been signs that these fohn winds have been somewhat warmer than usual, with temperatures above 30 degrees on a number of occasions in October and November.There’s a possibility that some temperatures may climb into the low to mid 30’s on a few occasions, if not a little higher in one or two cases.
For those in the city, that might be great news and thoughts of summer days spent at the beach or at the river over the Xmas and holiday period is more than welcome I’m sure, however on the farm, parched paddocks and windblown dust being raised, is not such a welcoming thought.
Let’s hope that the wind stays away over the warmer months and that Christmas will give us exactly what we wish for!
Weather Analyst-Richard Green