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Sub-tropical low developing

A low pressure system will dominate our weather this week, mainly for the North Island, but possibly the South Island too on Christmas Day.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan, from, says the low is coming from the sub-tropics and could bring good rainfalls to parched farms of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay.  “The low will move over Northland and Auckland tomorrow bringing strong east or south east winds and rain.  By late Tuesday and during Christmas Eve it will move over Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and southern parts of the North Island”.

Mr Duncan says at this stage he doesn’t think rainfall will be too high around Gisborne as the low may be too far west of the region but it’s certainly “a good sign” that a low is coming from the sub-tropics.  “Gisborne and Hawkes Bay are both drier than they were at this time last year – so any rain will be welcome”.

And this may not be the last low from the sub-tropics.  “This summer we may well see more of these lows as we’re not in a fixed weather pattern (ie La Nina or El Nino).  Certainly at the moment New Zealand has a better set up than this time last year for rain bearing fronts to move down from north of New Zealand and help out the farmers”.

It’s not bad news for campers either.  “We’re seeing about one day in 7 that’s wet … that’s pretty good news for campers”.

Meanwhile the South Island should be in for a mainly settled, dry, week.  The low may drive in some cooler, cloudier, southerlies on Christmas Day for eastern areas.  “Christchurch and Dunedin aren’t likely to have a scorcher but no significant rain is forecast on Christmas Day so it’s looking quite likely to be an outdoors day”.


Douglas on 22/12/2008 1:05am

“”Christchurch and Dunedin aren’t likely to have a scorcher but no significant rain is forecast on Christmas Day so it’s looking quite likely to be an outdoors day”.”

I wouldn’t want to be outdoors in that. Cold southerlies and rain bursting up the east of the South Island on Christmas Day morning.
I suppose they breed them tougher in the south.

WW Forecast Team on 22/12/2008 3:34am

That’s for sure!   Actually since writing that our predicted highs have dropped to around 12 or 13 for Dunedin and Invercargill.  Possibly an indoors day for them…in front of the fire!


Sarah B on 21/12/2008 11:29pm

I hope we get some rain too as one of our tanks is now empty and the other one far from full….. anybody want to help me do a rain dance? :o)

Mel on 21/12/2008 8:14pm

Hey Phil,

Whats your feeling on how much rain Auckland is going to get tomorrow? You seemed pretty accurate with how little we got on the weekend.


WW Forecast Team on 21/12/2008 9:46pm

Hi Mel,

This one favours heavier rain for Auckland…but the heaviest rain will be on the right hand side of the low…which means the bulk will fall out at sea.

We’ll certainly get more than on Saturday!   Not too sure just yet…they can be quite hard to pin point (coming from the north there’s a fine line between hitting land and missing land…as opposed to the broad western coastline when they come in from the Tasman).  At this stage I’d guess maybe 15 to 25mm for Auckland.  But that really is just a guess… still a little too far out to be sure with this one.



Andrew on 21/12/2008 9:53pm

Hi Phil

Maybe this is a sign that we are getting closer to the TC Season…
Hope the Shore gets a fair bit of rain as we have only had 28mm this month…

Thanks for the updates!!!


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