UPDATED
A rapidly deepening low will today move closer to north eastern New Zealand from the sub-tropics bringing big seas, strong winds and potentially heavy rain to some parts this weekend says WeatherWatch.co.nz.

The low, which will have a central air pressure of just 987hPa by Saturday morning, should lie near East Cape during Sunday.

WeatherWatch.co.nz has increasing confidence that heavy rain and gale force winds will affect north eastern parts of the North Island, mainly around East Cape.

MetService agrees, raising their confidence of rain and wind warnings for Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, eastern Bay of Plenty and Taupo from low to “moderate”.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the centre of the low is expected to clip or move very near East Cape and could bring rain heavy enough to cause some flooding and winds strong enough to cause minor to moderate damage.

Due to the lows deep centre the strong winds wrapped around it are likely to generate large seas possibly as far north as Northland and certainly across East Cape, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay from Sunday onwards.

The low should generate more rain for Northland and Auckland – both regions are incredibly dry as the summer weather continues in to March. 

However the past computer model runs now put the low further east of these two regions, resulting in a lower chance of rain on Sunday and Monday.  WeatherWatch.co.nz says the computer models are a little at odds as to the storms exact path and it’s one to watch closely.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says no severe weather is expected for Northland and Auckland.

Adding to the strong winds a large high over the South Island will push against the low creating a squeeze zone of air pressure.  The high will bring calm weather to the South Island.

Wind directions for northern centres will be mainly southerly, with the low east of New Zealand.   Those in the east should see more of an east to south east flow.