Milder air flows may lock in a warmer than average second half to July according to WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters with temperatures a few to several degrees above average at times.
Daytime highs in a number of centres this week will be in the mid to late teens with highs reaching 17 to 19 degrees in some eastern areas of the North Island and possibly in Northland too. Mild air will also cover the South Island with a lack of frosts nationwide for many areas. While there will be some light frosts in Southland and Otago this week they are borderline. Even Queenstown has on overnight low of +7 degrees this Friday. In fact, Waiouru in the North Island’s Central Plateau has a high of +10 degrees this Friday and overnight lows are above freezing all this week.
For the most part this week has a lot of westerly quarter winds, sometimes out of the Australian interior. By this Friday and weekend there will be an increase in this milder air flow as a cold front marches northwards and this will encourage sub-tropical winds over parts of New Zealand (with a brief colder change behind it).
Next week reliable modelling is now suggesting some days of sub-tropical nor’easters to develop for large portions of New Zealand. It’s not 100% locked in but the general trend does seem to suggest more milder than normal air flows for our country. Even if the nor’east flow doesn’t kick in next week the models suggest not much shift in airflows, which would encourage more of the same from this coming week.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says there are no significant nationwide or regional polar southerlies in the forecast for the coming week or so.
– 12 Noon Next Wednesday (July 25th) appears to show a nor’east air flow from the sub-tropics over the North Island of New Zealand / Weathermap.co.nz