WeatherWatch.co.nz will closely monitor any likelihood of incoming rain or showers as the country continues to dry out under the late summer sun.
An enormous high that stretches from the tropics, to eastern Australia, to near Antarctica and out past the international date line (into yesterday!) is now pushing in over New Zealand.
This is locking in a mostly dry, calm, period of weather with warmer days coming and cool nights.
Auckland region and NZ
This high will remain over the upper North Island for the entire week. A few showers are about the northern edge of this high, this morning those showers affected Northland. This week they may remain to our north east but are unlikely to affect the Auckland region.
Much of the nation is set for the big dry to continue and even though there’s suggestions there’s a change mid- March – the data has yet to be consistent about this.
A front coming in from the Tasman sea at the end of this week appears to be weakening but may still deliver a band of showers across the south and west.
Head Weather Analyst of WeatherWatch.co.nz Philip Duncan says there’s a small risk coming up for the Auckland area.
“A subtropical low to our north east will be sliding near us. We believe conditions will be mostly dry for Auckland with only a very low chance of a shower. Most data we rely on still says 0% chance of rain – so any shower would likely be isolated and only a drop in the bucket – if that.”
A greater chance appears on the rader close to a fortnight from now he believes.
“From March 8 to 12 – This may be a game changer if the models remain consistent. There is heightened confidence this morning of a rain event around these dates from a large but fairly disorganised sub-tropical low. One to watch closely.”
The risk here of rain also remains very low and even though there’s a chance of a weak southerly developing near the weekend the chance of precipitation don’t appear high.
“It’s looking more like drizzly showers and even then it’s only about a 20% chance” says Weather Analyst Richard Green.
“Just 20mm of rain has fallen over two days across the last month in Christchurch and further inland it’s not even half that and all that moisture has long gone” he says.
Long range models suggest there could be a rainy event in a couple of weeks time.” We need to wait and see a little longer if this will eventuate as recently very little has managed to force its way across the region” Mr Green says.
WeatherWatch.co.nz sees that this event potentially could affect much of the North Island and parts of the South Island however more time is needed to pinpoint its accuracy and amounts.
on 27/02/2013 8:29am
“Long range models suggest there could be a rainy event in a couple of weeks time”. Ah, by that you probably mean our almanac, written 2 years ago, on book shelves since last September, which predicts good rain around New Moon time of 10-14 March in both islands.