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RainWatch: 2 lows trying to move in, some rain coming

The driest parts of New Zealand are getting drier – and all eyes are on potential rainmakers.  There is no shortage of them either, lows are trying to move in towards us from all directions, but high pressure over the country is doing a “good” job at pushing them back and keeping the sun shining.

We have showers in the forecast today thanks to low number one…low number two is bigger, with more showers, and will actually drive rain in – not just showers.

On Wednesday afternoon heavy downpours pushed in across many North Island inland areas, especially South Waikato and Taupo, thanks to a more humid easterly flow.  This flow is heading south now.

This morning much lighter showers are brushing the eastern Coromandel Peninsula and Great Barrier Island.  Also, a few light showers are affecting Canterbury, mainly near the coast.  Small but positive.

By the weekend the main low in the Tasman Sea arrives with RAIN likely to set in across the West Coast one day earlier on Friday – with some spillover into Canterbury, especially closer to the ranges.  Some eastern waterways may also receive some spillover from the West Coast rain.

A few afternoon heavy showers may also form about the North Island ranges.

On Saturday another wave of rain will push into the West Coast – and while mainly dry for eastern New Zealand there is the risk of showers or spits of rain spilling over Otago and Canterbury for a time.  

Apart from a few showers or drizzle patches the North Island looks mainly dry on Saturday.

By Sunday the centre of the low will be just west of Fiordland with yet more rain for the West Coast – and showers, some heavy, moving in to the dry Nelson area. There is some chance these showers could turn to rain also, but borderline around Cook Strait.

The North Island again sees showers and drizzle patches on Sunday – and a mainly dry day for most regions.

By Monday Rain will continue for a fourth day on the West Coast with rain or showers spreading into the North Island’s west coast too – although it falls apart to showers north of Taranaki at this early stage. Auckland and Waikato, for example, may only receive drizzly showers.  This forecast for the upper North Island might change, but this has been the feeling and data for the past few days.

Rain for Canterbury and Otago?
The positive news is that a southerly change on Monday may drive rain into the dry east coast of the South Island. says the chance of rain next Monday for parts of Otago and Canterbury is the highest it’s been this year.  It’s one to watch – and the large South Island ranges may have some big impacts on the rainbands precise movements.  We’ll certainly be tracking this closely over the next few days so check back for our updates.



Sam Bearda on 29/01/2015 12:26am

Be interested to see the tropical low over New Caledonia develop and where it will head, either towards Queensland or us?

WW Forecast Team on 29/01/2015 1:02am

At this stage the air pressure favours all tropical storms to drop east of the International Dateline or weaken as they head east towards Aussie.  Lots of air pressure coming in between NZ and the tropcs for early Feb, so an invisible brick wall will be appearing north of NZ soon.

– WW

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