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Potential weather threats for the long weekend

This weekend some will receive sun while others will get rain, and there is the potential for threatening weather in the mix although overall things shouldn’t be too bad relatively speaking.

The basis of the story below is that we have a front approaching New Zealand from the west on Saturday which moves over later in the day and a low passes to the south of the country. On Sunday we have a similar pattern although this time an area of low pressure moves eastwards a bit further north over the South Island. Monday has a southwesterly airflow over the country with a stationary front developing to the northwest of the North Island, it reaches out later in the day to start affecting Northland itself.

So, with a bit more detail in regards to any potentially threatening weather this long weekend. On Saturday a northwesterly airflow will build over the South Island and later in the day over the North Island. From evening strong northwesterlies are possible about inland Canterbury through into Cook Strait, these strong winds will move onto the lower North Island at night. There is a chance of winds gusting to gale force at times in this risk area but mainly this will be about Cook Strait from evening.

Rain will move onto the West Coast on Saturday afternoon also and may be heavy for a time in the evening however this could be more of a run of the mill event for the coast.

Breezy west to northwest winds will cover the country on Sunday however not till night time do they become strong again about the upper South Island and lower North Island, gales about Cook Strait through Sunday night are likely. Some heavy rain is possible on the West Coast of the South Island from evening and overnight, this could be much the same as on Saturday.

As we move into Monday no rain or wind threats loom, there may be some snow however to 400m in Southland and Otago then 600m later in the day in Canterbury although accumulations look to be on the low side. Also late in the day there are some hints in models of heavy rain developing in the far reaches of Northland as alluded to earlier regarding the stationary front so something to keep an eye on.

– Homepage image / File, Greg Taylor

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson


Jennifer on 18/10/2012 9:28pm

Good morning,
I have heard through another fishing website there is a cyclone that is looking to hit the North Island from early next week – is that true ?

Look forward to hearing from you

WW Forecast Team on 18/10/2012 11:40pm

Hi there – no it’s not a cyclone but it is a very large sub-tropical low.  Large doesn’t = nasty though.  A large cyclone is bad, but a large low isn’t always.  This one, however, is one to watch – it does pose a risk for both heavy rain and severe gales.  The low will actually form in the Tasman Sea around Sunday/Monday then move north into the sub-tropics by Tues/Weds by the looks of things. 



Jennifer on 19/10/2012 12:46am

Thanks Phil,

I am in Auckland, will we be affected by it ?

sw on 19/10/2012 4:51am

It will be the usual,NW winds easing some rain developing and gradually a change to easterlies and furthur rain.

sw on 18/10/2012 7:43pm

Worse today than yesterday,more SW today,whistling noise,driving rain today,cooler and plenty of random needles.

C Johnson on 18/10/2012 7:41pm

As usual, MANY THANKS for your great forecasting WeatherWatch. The early warnings are very valuable. (and telling what is going on is great, means I know to watch for arrivals so I can take pix)

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