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Opinion: Middle of winter but spring’s already in the air

We’re in the final week of July and smack bang in the middle of winter but the month is going to end warmer than it started.

As said in our Fonterra Forecast for July (back in late June) the month would start off wintry but end drier, windier and milder.

As we head into August let’s not kid ourselves – winter is definitely still in charge and polar blasts (as we’ve seen in both Australia and New Zealand this winter with frequency) are possible at any time in the month – and as late as October.

However there is also little chance of denying it – Mother Nature is ahead of our calendars.  Calving is beginning, lambing too.  Daffodils are blooming and a few plants are even showing signs of new growth and buds.

So while winter is definitely still here, spring may be now showing up in the weather pattern….with more westerly weather, fewer days with frosts and slightly warmer weather. You may even start to notice a little bit of extra daylight morning and night compared to a month ago.

Won’t say we’ve passed the worst of winter yet – August can be a surprisingly nasty month sometimes.  But with every week that now passes we are getting more sunlight and spring-conditions are showing more and more hints of arriving and setting in.   

– By head weather analyst Philip Duncan

– Image / File, Joanne Ottey



Dave on 27/07/2015 1:28am

I hope you are right Phil, I personally have had enough of the winter.

I wonder though if this is really the effect of the start of the El Nino event which is very likely to take hold this year? The spring bulbs are up at my place however the grass has not taken off yet mainly due to the frosty mornings I guess.

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks but at this stage it looks rather windy to me.

Cheers Dave 


WW Forecast Team on 27/07/2015 4:47am

Hi Dave, ha, quite a few people have said “we hope you’re right!” today – shows how many people love spring!  Agree with your assessment – overall winter hasn’t been too brutal, but the frosts have taken a toll in northern areas (Auckland/Northland) more than other years.  So we’re seeing milder weather in the north of NZ – with frosty mornings in the mix.  Winter isn’t over yet though – the next two months ahead are usually quite up and down with hints of summer but plenty of reminders we’re still in late winter!



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