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November kicking off with a high, then rain

El Nino may be setting in now across the Pacific but continues to forecast occasional rain events for New Zealand, including right along our drier east coast.

As we head into November this coming weekend a large high should spread across the nation bringing lighter winds and drier skies.

Farmers along New Zealand’s eastern coastline have been concerned for two years about talk of El Nino – now that it has arrived, at the same time as the windy spring westerlies, it means an even bigger focus on rain makers here. 

“Since September we’ve seen a series of lows cross New Zealand, and while some in the east are seeing a concerning dry pattern set in, many others are seeing rain events keeping conditions about average for October” says head weather analyst Philip Duncan. says driest areas with most concern appear to be still inland parts of North and South Canterbury and some in North Otago. 

While the 1st of November may be settled as a high briefly crosses the country, rain with a nor’west flow returns to the West Coast around November 2nd.  Around the 3rd and 4th rain moves up the east coast of both islands, hopefully bringing a little relief to dry farms.  

“Computer models have about 60 to 70% confidence of rain in these dry eastern areas which is certainly a silver lining” says Duncan.

A number of farmers have told the spring weather has been very kind to them this year so far.

“It’s good to see that the weather, despite some doom and gloom forecasts, is so far giving us a fairly healthy mix of conditions. However while it’s great to be optimistic we also have to be realistic, and as we head into November and December things can dry out and heat up very quickly with El Nino, so the focus by WeatherWatch on any potential rain makers will only intensify over the coming weeks” says Mr Duncan.


What do you think?  Are rainfall numbers concerning you – or are they normal for this time of the year for you?  Also, don’t forget to vote in the current poll on our homepage!


Guest on 28/10/2015 3:05am

This is our third dry oct in a row so far we have had just 40 mils of rain and still 640 mils short of average yearly rainfall….was last year and the year before el ninos as well

Dave on 27/10/2015 8:07pm

Hi Phil

If my lawn here in the Waikato is anything to go by, the farmers in this area should be smiling. The growth has been massive after regular rain bands each week.

It will be interesting to see what happens during the next month, although looking forward there seems to be more rain later this week & again next week so more of the same

Cheers Dave

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