December and January have brought a real variety of weather to New Zealand – from snow and frosts, to floods and slips, to temperatures in the mid 30s.
In the past week alone we’ve seen two deep lows affect the nation – but the forecast ahead looks a little less dramatic with perhaps more high pressure for the North Island and fewer colder fronts (and not as much severe weather) for the South Island.
The rain over the past week has been welcome – but what are you hoping February will hold?
on 25/01/2017 7:32am
Niwa and yourslef have talked about la nina since early on in the spring and now thats its petering out and almost neutral.At what stage has there even been anything remotely like a la nina weather pattern in the last few months?
Surely you couldnt get a more el nino weather pattern that what we have had since november through to end of january.It has been a constant river of strong westerlies.Windy wet and cold on the west coast,dry windy warm on the east coast.not exacty a result of la nina.
Ive have heard you say many times in the press people only remember the nice sunny days in there memorys and block out the bad weather.I find that insulting to the intelligence of most people.I for one have never expereinced anything like this in the manawatu of such a prolonged period of cold westerlies,havent even come close to wearing shorts or heading to the beach.
I can assure you its not my memory fading or blocking out the bad weather days.
3 years ago yourself and niwa predicted a strong el nino.It was one of the hottest driest sunniest windless periods in the manawatu.I really do wonder if ken ring is more accurate in his long term weather forescasting that the blokes with the fancy computer models
on 25/01/2017 8:05am
Hi Kevin – thanks for you comments. Firstly, we don’t forecast La Nina or El Nino – that’s what NIWA and other global scientists do. We simply report on it – and from that we add that into our forecasting. We often disagree with NIWA – their management has issues with us due to this. The current La Nina was always forecast to be a “weak” one – and as I’ve said many many times over the past few months this doesn’t lock in rain for us, it simply increased the chances of it. We were the only forecaster in New Zealand to this month be publicly saying La Nina will NOT bring rain to the country and that it’s failed for New Zealand. Sorry if you felt I insulted your intelligence, it was not my intention. So I now assume you clearly understand that MetService receives 25 million in tax funding a year, and NIWA $100+ Million in tax funding – and here we are just two weather forecasters who cost you nothing and receive no tax funding at all. Feel free to rely on Ken Ring – we don’t believe in long range forecasting beyond a month, if that – but we certainly don’t ask people to soley use us. Use who you find most accurate!
on 25/01/2017 10:22pm
Thanks philip,Sorry if you took offence but you seem to be more in the press talking about the current weather than anyone from metservice or niwa.I dont believe in forecasting more than a month out either because yet to see any organisiation globally accurate,in other words places like niwa are a waste of taxpayers money.Metvuw still seem to forecasting the strong westerly pattern next week apart from 1 day.Whats your opionion on all this talk about shifting summer holidays?last 3 summers have hot and dry starting in november 1 bad summer everyone wants it changed.Isnt that what the weather is?always changes .some people seem to think avg temperatures,rain etc mean everyday is 20 degress with 2 mls of rain to get the monthly avg.I think we were long overdue for a rubbish summer it all evens out in the longterm