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More rain coming – but is the weather about to whistle a new tune?

As we first predicted on Monday heavy rain is again coming towards New Zealand, wrapped around another large Tasman Sea low – scheduled to arrive this weekend. has been looking closely at the data and our feeling is that while it may be significant enough to prompt rain warnings it’s unlikely to linger. 

“The low is likely to be as big as all the others but rather than meander slowly across the nation for several days this one will push across the country quickly – caught up in a new westerly flow” predicts head weather analyst Philip Duncan.  “This could spare Canterbury from more torrential rain and for other regions the fast movement of the low will lessen the chances of slips and flooding”.

And it’s this new westerly flow that first predicted last month.  

“This westerly flow – which doesn’t always mean westerly winds but instead the general flow of weather will come from the west – looks as though it’s the first serious signs of spring, perhaps the change we’ve needed to break this super wet pattern we’ve been in for a month now”.

The westerly flow tends to be faster moving meaning rains don’t linger but more days in the west, north and south may have clouds,  showers and wind.  Meanwhile the east – which in recent weeks has been saturated – should see sunnier, milder weather during the days and cooler, clearer, nights.

Frosts may also creep back into more areas – although severe frosts aren’t likely unless a cold southerly hits us first.

“Most people I’ve spoken to are over the rain and personally having the tune “here comes the rain again” by the Eurythmics stuck in my head each day has been bad enough” jokes Philip Duncan. “Hopefully the new tune soon will be “It’s a beautiful day” by U2″.

While heavy rain has caused some flooding and slips, most areas have tolerated the downpours fairly well after a dry Autumn and start to Winter. says generally speaking the weather will remain unsettled for the rest of the month but the weather news authority expects less of the big rain makers that have drenched much of the nation over the past month and windier weather to increase.

– Homepage image – You can’t beat Wellington on a good day / Peter Buck



Zelda Wynn on 15/08/2012 12:21am

The wind in New Lynn is howling not whistling a tune. sunny,cloudy and dry

Guest on 14/08/2012 11:59pm

Do you have a feel on what the South Island lake inflows could be like this year when the snow melt begins?

WW Forecast Team on 15/08/2012 1:07am

Hi there – not really our area of expertise sorry – NIWA would be better informed to help with that specific question but nothing to us jumps out as being unusual for this spring – been a lot of rain over the SI this winter and snow amounts have been steady in some areas but perhaps not as low down as previous years,



Stuart on 14/08/2012 11:45pm

From the forecast maps, there seems to be a largish low brewing just below Australia mid next week. Any ideas on what that may bring to NZ?

WW Forecast Team on 15/08/2012 1:09am

Next week definitely looks unsettled but we’re currently not expecting any major lows after this initial one clears NZ over Sunday/Monday.  We think that big low under Australia will weaken quite a bit before reaching NZ thanks to a much higher air pressure over the Tasman Sea and northern NZ.  One to watch but not something we’re too concerned about at this stage,.


sw on 14/08/2012 8:47pm

What about songs Windswept by Roxy music or Windy by the association.This pattern though little wet hasnt been too bad the past 6 weeks.

RW on 14/08/2012 9:42pm

A view not shared in my area. Apart from the continuing excess rainfall, the expanding sunshine deficit (to add to those of 2010 and 2011) is a real drag. A pattern change to more normal westerlies can’t come soon enough.

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