A front passes over the North Island during Monday moving in a west to east fashion meanwhile a cold southerly airflow spreads northwards over the South Island during the day.
Dry at first for the upper North Island then late morning rain moves in as northwesterlies change blustery westerly, rain may be heavy Auckland southwards then easing to showers in the afternoon. Rain for the lower western North Island in the morning with heavy falls then easing by midday to showers, winds blustery from the west. Rain moves into Wairarapa in the morning then further north in the afternoon with a gusty westerly change, conditions clearing in behind for a time then showers move back into Wairarapa by evening and perhaps further north overnight with a southwest change.
Morning rain about Wellington may be heavy with strong northerlies, easing before midday as winds tend northwest then late afternoon or evening another bout of rain moves in with heavy falls possible as strong to gale southerlies develop.
Early rain clears South Westland on Monday morning then expect sunny spells with blustery southwest winds, heavy rain for North Westland eases to showers in the morning and mostly clearing late afternoon / evening. A few showers may linger about Buller till overnight then clearing. Early heavy rain about Nelson eases to showers then clearing in the afternoon to some sun. Morning rain or showers about Marlborough eases, in the afternoon showers picking up again (heavy at times) about eastern coastal Marlborough as southwesterly winds strengthen then clearing later on.
Rain about South Canterbury spreads into North Canterbury by midday bringing heavy falls, southwesterlies strengthen with gales likely about the coast. Rain eases to the odd shower by evening, clearing at night with cold temperatures developing overnight about inland areas. Some snow may reach as low as 500m, expect heavy snow above 900m. Rain about Southland and Otago easing to showers by afternoon, mostly clearing evening although remaining about some coastal areas especially coastal Southland. Snow flurries lower to 500m in the afternoon however by this stage they will be light, heavier snow higher up.
Image: Monday 29th April 2019 Midday MSLP / rain map – weathermap.co.nz
By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson – WeatherWatch.co.nz
on 28/04/2019 6:06am
niwa said it could be a wet winter with not much snow going by the warm tasman is that right
on 28/04/2019 8:05pm
Hi there, that’s a very hard thing to forecast in NZ with any accuracy (and NIWA don’t always have a great track record for seasonal accuracy). Warmer sea waters may help keep the snow level a little higher this year, but it can also help create for much heavier snow events when you put a cold southerly over warm waters. Perhaps remind those American NIWA forecasters about “lake effect snow” (when their arctic northerly hits warm lake water and creates massive snow amounts). So that statement is too simplistic as overall may be less snow but we could still have a major snow event that causes serious issues right down to sea level. NZ’s location on earth makes seasonal forecasting almost impossible from year to year due to our tiny size and the chaos that surrounds us.