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MetService downgrades warnings just 2 hours after issuing them

The state owned forecaster has quickly revised their rain warnings just two hours after issuing them this morning, reports

At 9:30am the state forecaster predicted another 100 to 150mm for Auckland and Northland bewteen 9:30am today and 1am Monday, however at 11:45am they significantly changed the warnings as the main frontal band passed by, saying Auckland’s predicted rainfall is now 110 to 130mm less than predicted earlier today.

“Rain has eased in Northland and Auckland this morning and is now likely to ease the about Coromandel Peninsula by early afternoon.  For Northland and Auckland, occasional rain with a few heavy falls is likely for the remainder of the day, with another 20 to 40mm possible. For Coromandel Peninsula, the rain should ease and become occasional late this morning or early afternoon. For the rest of today, another 20 to 40mm possible north of about Whitianga, while 40 to 70mm is likely further south” says MetService. says questions should be addressed to MetService and not as to why the warnings were issued and then changed over such a short time period.

The front passed over Auckland this morning in a sensational way with temperatures jumping 6 degrees in just 30 minutes and humidity rocketing to 100%. 

The sudden change to tropical weather saw condensation on the outside of windows.

MetService still has several regions under weather warnings as the main front moves south.

Click here to read all current MetService warnings and watches for New Zealand


didi on 22/01/2011 11:59pm

why cant in this day and age with all the computors etc we have we cant get the weather right I know it must be hard but I thought that they would be able to get it right once we have sun here in kerikeri whats going on hw can a weather forcast charge so much in two houirs but hey thank you for keeping us up to date maybe we will get a walk in today

mike Guest on 22/01/2011 11:52pm

Well done WxWatch anybody with an interest in Wx & avblty to the net will have seen some substantial differences in modelling & forecasting over the past few weeks & the weeks to come.It’s not to hard to make an informed consensus as a layman albeit as a former employee of our national wx service.It’s not so much what they say but when they say it.Keep up the good work & any discussion on the subject (Including Ken Ring’s input) can only be healthy & informative.

mark on 22/01/2011 11:10pm

you guys are giving the metservice a hard time abt warnings etc but you yourselves have been hopping up and down about this “event” like it was Noahs flood itself….come on, dont be Harry Hindsight

WW Forecast Team on 22/01/2011 11:18pm

No we understand the difficulty of forecasting this rain band – Philip Duncan said in a blog on Friday that it was going to be a 50/50 line over Auckland where the rain would fall.

We’re just stating that we can’t comment on why MetService made these predictions, as many are already asking us about it.    We can, however,  comment on our own predictions and we also thought the heavy rain would last until this evening, but it shifted more to the west than originally predicted. 

– WeatherWatch

mark on 22/01/2011 11:23pm

understand, it must be hard for everyone invloved in forecasting our weather, it frequently changes and doesnt do what its expected to…..good luck

WW Forecast Team on 22/01/2011 11:28pm

In particular these sub-tropical lows are very tricky to forecast!

Thanks for the feedback Mark, much appreciated.

– WeatherWatch

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