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Hot weather before yet another cold change

Hot weather is in the forecast today in the South Island after weeks of low temperatures, rain and showers and cold winds – but a colder change is coming.  Yesterday Dunedin was expected to reach a summer-like high of 25 degrees, while today Christchurch is heading for 27 degrees.

Wellington has mostly sunny skies with northerlies building – they’ll become strong as we head into Thursday afternoon.  

North eastern centres like Gisborne and Tauranga look to be stunning too with highs in the mid 20s.

However Thursday sees yet another cold change developing in the south – then spreading north on Friday.

To give you an idea as to when and how cold – take a look at these main centre weather changes we expect over the coming few days:

Weds: 25degs.  Thurs: 18degs.  Fri: 13degs.

Weds: 23degs.  Thurs: 27degs.  Fri: 17degs.

Weds: Fairly calm. Thurs: Northerlies become strong. Late evening southerly.

In Auckland and Hamilton conditions aren’t so changeable – but the spring-like pattern of cloudy and windy westerlies looks set to continue with calm westerlies on Wednesday giving way to cooler, brisk, sou’westers by Friday once again.

End in Sight?
There is no immediate end in sight to the changeable weather pattern.  The highs remain too close to Australia to truly protect us.  Next week sees another sou’west change but also a sub-tropical low may bring some heavy rain towards northern New Zealand for Monday 20th.  Rain may well be heavy – but the set up is a bit complicated and we can’t yet lock down where the rain will fall – over camping grounds and beaches or out at sea.  We’ll keep you posted!

While accurately predicted the hotter weather this week for some parts of the South Island we are surprised that this spring-like pattern is holding on so strong. This is due to the highs being stuck over eastern Australia – feeding us the sou’west flow that runs along the eastern side of these highs.

Sorry coastal Otago and Southland – next week looks a little warmer but still only highs in the mid-teens for a number of days.

– Homepage image / Chris Johnson



Derek on 15/01/2014 10:44pm

I am wondering if these spring like conditions are now becoming autumnal ones? one or two mornings lately have had that autumn feeling. Maybe just me but it felt like it rather than spring.

Guest on 15/01/2014 8:34pm

I noticed on Metservice that it was still 26C in Timaru this morning at 5:30am.  What is the highest overnight low in NZ ever recorded?

Andrew on 15/01/2014 7:50pm

It’s only fair to show both sides of the forecasting accuracy story isn’t it?

You correctly forecasted higher temps this week but failed at the beginning of the year with your Monster High which the media latched on to.  The high is there but in the wrong place!

It’s been interesting how NW’ers have been giving temps in the high twenties in a few places.   There’s a lot of cold air about when Canterbury gets a NW in what is generally considered the warmest two weeks of the year and it reaches only 25 or so.

WW Forecast Team on 15/01/2014 8:26pm

I’ve personally said a number of times “the high isn’t doing what we thought it might do two weeks ago” and also that this spring pattern has lingered far longer than we thought. More than happy to admit when we get things wrong as no forecaster is 100% right – and we’ve always been open and honest about incorrect forecasts.  And you’re quite right Andrew, the nor’westers have been giving some much needed summer heat to the South Island – in fact with so much windy weather I’m surprised we haven’t had more temps pushing 30 but there’s just been too many southerlies in the mix.  This tropical low will certainly add some warmer air to the north for a while.



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