The first tropical depression of this year’s SW Pacific cyclone season may also grow into the first tropical cyclone of the season reports WeatherWatch.co.nz.
The latest forecast out of Nadi from the Fiji Meteorological Service has upgraded their prediction yesterday saying there is now a “High chance” TD01F will grow into a Tropical Cyclone this weekend between Vanuatu and Fiji.
However WeatherWatch.co.nz says latest computer models produced by organisations around the world show the low not reaching the intensity to become a tropical cyclone.
It will certainly be an area to watch though, with the depression tracking very slowly over warmer than average waters between Vanuatu and Fiji.
WeatherWatch.co.nz predicts that thunderstorms and torrential rain will affect Vanuatu and western Fiji over the weekend.
WeatherWatch.co.nz also maintains the tropical depression will reach New Zealand around Wednesday and Thursday bringing some rain to dry parts of the nation.
In yesterday’s Tropical Cyclone Outlook WeatherWatch.co.nz predicted “low confidence” of the depression bring “storm conditions” to New Zealand but had “moderate confidence” that it would bring rain to dry regions across northern New Zealand on Thursday. That prediction remains the same today.
We’ll closely monitor the low and bring you another update this evening.
on 27/11/2010 6:02am
Hopefully it produces some swell for us surfers in the BOP:)
on 27/11/2010 6:35am
Next Thursday to Sunday looks promising (weekend looking the best at this stage) but winds will be coming offshore.
– WeatherWatch Weekends
on 27/11/2010 2:44am
Bring on the rain. All the farmers in our area are gearing up for drought mode unfortunately.
on 27/11/2010 3:10am
WeatherWatch also believes you should gear up for drought as quite clearly the La Nina rains are taking much longer to arrive than originally thought.
This low is a good sign of things to come we hope…but it may well take another 4 to 6 weeks to get going.
– WeatherWatch weekends
on 27/11/2010 1:08am
It’s so good to have your regular updates on Tropical cyclones. Your site will be an extra valuable asset throughout the cyclone season. Many thanks.
on 27/11/2010 2:14am
Thanks very much!
We want to try and accurately cover them and also contribute our own predictions too, which in the past have been fairly accurate – but at the same time provide all the "official" forecast and links too, so that readers can have all the information at their disposal.
Thanks for the feedback
– Philip Duncan