It’s starting to become clear that summer this year for New Zealand will not go down in history as one of our best, for holidaymakers anyway.
The cold snap over the past 24 hours is even more proof that summer this year has failed to kick start – and WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says don’t expect any dramatic changes anytime soon.
“Our lack of decent holiday weather this summer isn’t due to La Nina – it’s due to the weakness of the highs over New Zealand which have failed to not only deliver lengthy dry spells for most regions but have also failed to remain in one location for more than a few days at a time”.
Image / The rain map for February 5th – all areas of colour indicate rain – and as you can see, there isn’t a lack of it in the south west Pacific. Click the map to see rain map predictions for the next 14 days.
Mr Duncan says while that is great news for dairy farmers, who have had bumper grass growth across many regions this season, it has meant a wetter, cloudier, windier and cooler summer for many trying to get a decent summer break.
And the forecast for February may not be the silver bullet to the unsettled weather many were hoping for.
February is traditionally a time for hot, dry weather, and while that weather is still expected – it will be more of an “on and off” function.
“We can’t see how February will end, nor can we see what March will shape up like, but we can see that the first half of February sees the mixed bag of weather continuing – with two reliable models showing a return to wetter – but possibly warmer – weather towards the end of the first week” says Mr Duncan.
“For true settled summer weather we need a high to not just past over us, but to drop anchors over us and last a good week or two”.
Bur WeatherWatch.co.nz says no modelling suggest that will happen over the next two or three weeks.
Short term maps show a risk of rain again this Friday, with cooler south west winds spreading back over the country, then quickly easing on Saturday with settled weather returning to most places during Saturday or Sunday.
The next rain risk zone looks likely to be towards the end of the first week of February as sub-tropical rain clouds gather.
on 23/01/2012 1:13pm
Bar less than a handful of raindays in the entire month, February should be hot and dry and a worry for farmers. Summer is expected to start around 7 February
on 24/01/2012 2:02am
Well I hope your wrong Ken but it’s been such a good year for us farmers with almost ideal growing conditions in the Waikato for 12 months now, most farmers are well prepared for drier conditions with extra silage and hay made. Will be interesting to see what happens during the next month. Both predictions are on here in black and white. I suggust Weatherwatch looks at this again at the end of the month and see who was closest to reality.
on 24/01/2012 12:46pm
With the exception of the east near the hills I feel that after the first week of February Waikato may only get 2 or 3 significant rain days over the following 6 weeks. However, the north, south and west of the region can expect about half their February average. March and April should return to normal patterns.
on 23/01/2012 9:01am
Wow you guys are such joy germs this summer aren’t you?!!
I’ll put in my request now for good weather in Tauranga (and on the roads between there and Auckland) the second weekend in Feb please. Will buy you coffee if you can make it happen!!
on 23/01/2012 8:08pm
Why do people think “bad” weather is associated with rain?
I suggest you should never go to Fiordland, that get very bad weather there!
on 24/01/2012 10:54am
When you’re on the roads and at outdoor events, good weather is dry, with enough breeze to provide relief from February’s heat, but not enough to cause a nuisance. Rain is necessary and not ‘bad’ but not ideal when plans are for outdoors.
on 23/01/2012 4:48am
Well summer is never guaranteed some years,but winter always will,always a wet and windy season for auckland be it from may to august or june to october but we all guarantee there be a wet season in Auckland if not by world standards it being springlike here all the time.