It’s always interesting when we get a complaint about a rain forecast, just how often that person hasn’t looked at the ‘big picture’ or read the ‘fine print’.
While forecasts are increasingly becoming localised, the terrain across our regions is so varied that the rain totals do often differ quite a bit from farm to farm, orchard to orchard.
What many people may not realise is that they’re not reading the fine print in the rain forecasts – and when you do that, the forecast comes to life in a far more accurate way.
If you follow all these steps, you’ll have FAR FEWER FALSE ALARMS!
This is where most people stop. They’ve seen the rain icon, they’ve seen “Rain developing” in the forecast. Surely that’s enough?
Not even close.
All of these resources can be found at www.RuralWeather.co.nz and will better help you plan ahead. Forecasters do get it wrong from time to time, but you can significantly increase the accuracy of your local forecasts if you follow the steps above.
If rain matters than much to you then the couple extra minutes to take the extra few steps above will make a big difference.
on 11/02/2021 6:28am
Hi WW, what an awesome article! I love it and I learnt from it! Thank you so much! Although I have a question, when can the rainy days be locked in? Of course, 10 days are way too far, but when are you sure that it will rain, how far?
on 11/02/2021 6:18pm
Hey Obai, thanks for the thanks! Highest confidence is within 48 hours, but sometimes even a long range rain event can be pretty much locked in (more so in winter when things move with a bit more speed). If the chance of rain is over 60% more than 5 days out that’s a fairly high chance of rain (but rarely locked in that far out).
on 11/02/2021 12:00am
An excellent article and I learned a lot from it. My general weather knowledge has increased a lot since I started visiting this site a few years ago.
Thanks to WW.