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Dramatic change in weather ahead

It’s becoming clear to forecasters that the frosty, sunny, weather is shortly about to end and be replaced by a very large low pressure system that should see warmer, wetter and windier weather for the remainder of June.

The low, which is predicted by computer models to swamp not only the entire Tasman Sea but also most of New Zealand and as far north as New Caledonia, may bring several days of rain, showers and wind starting this Friday.

Regions facing north and west are likely to get the most rain with saying rainfall amounts may be heavy enough to cause possible flooding in both islands.  Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says it’s still a few days out but a number of recent computer models are all pointing to a very wet end to June. 

“While we can’t pinpoint pricisely how much rain will fall we can see that a very large low is coming our way this weekend and into next week”. 

Mr Duncan says although the size of the low doesn’t make it more severe it will prolong its time over us.  “The low is forecast to become very large meaning it won’t zip through in just a day or two.  It’s likely to start late on Thursday and linger through until the start of July”.

Last year in July the country was battered by two large rain storms, one which caused significant flooding across Northland, Waikato, the upper South Island and Canterbury.  “While it’s too early to say what this July will bring us this dramatic shift in weather patterns could mean a wetter, warmer, month is on the way for some regions, which will buck the trend considering July is usually colder than June”.

June has been a very cold month so far with light southerlies meaning places like Waikato have had severe frosts while lighter frosts have stretched as far north as the Bay of Islands.  Auckland has had a number of days reaching just 11 and 12 as the high and overnight lows to -1 frequently colder than Dunedin and Invercargill.  Several frosts have affected Auckland with temperatures further south in Hamilton dropping to -5, and to -7 in Tokoroa and Central Otago.

With unsettled weather on the way the last of the frosts should be this Wednesday for most of the north and this Thursday or Friday for the south.


Guest on 22/06/2009 9:09pm

Will the rain fall as snow in the alpine areas…. I hope all the nice white stuff doesnt get washed away…

WW Forecast Team on 22/06/2009 9:49pm

Hard to say but certainly the North Island ski fields face losing some snow.  But the positive is that what ever snow is lost may be made up by what follows the low.  Fingers crossed for the skiers!

WeatherWatch Team

Peter on 22/06/2009 8:35pm

Is there a possibility of a cold snap after this low passes?

WW Forecast Team on 22/06/2009 9:47pm

Almost always do we see a cold snap following on from a big warm northerly in winter… but to be honest we don’t know what shape or form it will take.  Because this low is going to take a number of days to move through we’ll need to wait a few more days to see what the computer models are predicting for this time next week. 



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