With the cold change that pushed through over the weekend it’s hard not to think winter is on our doorstep – but the good news, at least for those that love summer, is that the warm weather is a long way from over just yet.
This week a large high will slowly spread across the country killing off that southerly by Tuesday or Wednesday and bringing plenty of settled weather.
The nights will certainly be cooler, but the days will gradually climb back up into the low 20s for many areas, with mid 20s likely through inland areas later in the week.
The tropics are also showing signs of life again – at least with some of the long range models we use – so that means the humid easterlies are unlikely to be over yet either for the upper North Island and may return next week.
But this week is certainly going to be a cooler one with much lower humidity. A chance for some people to get better sleeps – and perhaps a reminder for others to get the firewood ready for winter – as the cold season kicks in, in about 4 to 8 weeks time.
In the meantime, WeatherWatch.co.nz sticks with its prediction of an Indian Summer for many parts of the North Island and upper South Island – and by that we mean warm, settled, dry weather continuing into April despite the fact the leaves are changing colour and the nights are getting longer and cooler.
Homepage image / Chris Gin
on 6/03/2011 11:02pm
Hi Phil, I’ve asked this question before but then couldn’t remember where I’d posted it so never found the reply… (I’ll save this page to favourites!)
What determines which weather pattern will prevail for the summer?
on 6/03/2011 11:16pm
Well it changes every year… this year we had La Nina which pushed up our sea temperatures and, as NIWA predicted last Spring, we would have more significant rain events, more easterlies and overall a hotter summer for most places. The big global climate forecasters, such as NIWA, BOM, NOAA etc, are predict La Nina will fade by winter (although La Nina has recently strengthened). It’s unknown what lies ahead for summer but by Winter or early spring there will be some predictions. Once we know if it’s neutral, La Nina or El Nino we can than piece together what the forecast for the summer will be like, overall.
on 6/03/2011 8:20pm
Beacuse we had strong La Nina patterns for the last 6 to 8 months, would there be chance of this pattern inverting to El Nino condtion ssay come November/December later this year?
on 6/03/2011 8:23pm
Hi Paul – it’s possible but at the moment the dicussion only goes as far as winter when neutral conditions return. We’ll keep you posted on any talk of El Nino for summer.