The timing is certainly not the greatest. Many folks are out tramping and camping and enjoying the great outdoors. Others are trying to catch up from the latest shakes that have hit Christchurch.
Either way, the remnants of Fina probably could’ve held off a bit and I don’t think anyone would have been too upset.
But, despite the fact that the news doesn’t sound very encouraging, don’t cancel your plans just yet.
The incoming storm won’t soak the entire country for several days in a row. There will be breaks in the rain. There will be times when it will be little more than a few spits. There will be parts of the country that will get more rain than others. The whole situation hasn’t even fully developed. The forecast could change. Thursday is looking very wet at this point and I don’t think that will change much. But beyond that, there are still pieces that need to fall into place.
Not to mention the fact this whole thing should be out of here by early next week.
So what should you do?
Stay on top of the latest forecasts and make your own decisions about whether the forecast is bad enough where your outdoor plans are going to fall apart. Don’t assume that because you’re hearing about flooding in Nelson that you your tramping plans in Otago are out.
Also, if you do go ahead with your outdoor plans, take some extra safety precautions. Let people know where you are going and what route you are taking to get there.
A little planning will go along way in dodging Mother Nature’s attempts at raining on your holiday.
We will be there with you to help make sure you have the info you need to decide how to plan that holiday. Stay close and we will help to keep you ahead of the storm.
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Guest on 27/12/2011 11:47pm
I’ve been looking at your forecasts in the Maps section (tables), specifically for Whangamata (just down from Opotere) for the period from Fri 30th – Tue 3rd.
As I understand it there will be pretty well CONSTANT showers or rain from the Friday through to early Mon morning.
Then there might be some breaks in precipitation happening from mid Mon morning onwards, progressively clearing over the Monday and fine by late Mon afternoon, certainly by the evening, and fine for the next few days after that as well (Tue/Wed/Thu).
Have I got all that right?
Or is it very likely there will be good decent breaks in the showers/rain over the Fri / Sat / Sun period?
Thanks for your wonderful site – now even more improved !
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Sue on 27/12/2011 7:40am
Hi Phil
Didnt know where else to put this query but…… how was the weather forecasted prior to computers existing? Aside from looking out the window was it all done on barometer readings? Many thanks.
Cheers
Sue
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WW Forecast Team on 27/12/2011 7:24pm
Hi Sue – great question. Weather forecasting was revolutionised with the invention of satellites – finally we could see storms from space – and track lows and highs around the globe using a combination of weather balloons, local readings and sat maps. But timing was usually terrible and the forecasts not too flash. Computers have totally changed things – now computers can use that information, plus look back at other similar events, and work out what happened and what is about to happen. But you can have the same set up 10 times in a row – but 2 or 3 of those times have different outcomes. That’s the chaotic and unpredictable side to weather that means human beings are still needed on a daily basis. Gut instinct plays a part, as do your own calculations – sometimes crude, sometimes scientific.
When we launch our new national forecasts in the very near future they will be heavily based on computer models – our plan is to put more and more human time into them, as we know that’s what helps make them a lot more accurate, as we see with our Auckland forecasts. But we must walk before we run, so those are all things to look forward to.
This link from Australia’s government forecaster is interesting about predicting before computers: http://www.bom.gov.au/info/ftweather/page_25.shtml
Cheers
– WW
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Sue on 28/12/2011 7:49am
Thank you so much for that response – it is so wonderful having you and your team out there.
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Ann on 27/12/2011 5:24am
If you had the option of packing up on Wednesday evening or Thurs morning from a spot on the Kaipara what would you do? Just wondering what time the wet stuff is likely to get here on Thursday?
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WW Forecast Team on 27/12/2011 7:25pm
Wednesday evening should be drier than Thursday morning Ann – heaviest rain will develop during Thursday and into the afternoon.
Kind regards
– WW
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