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Could March be drier than average? forecasters believe the ongoing series of anticyclones could mean March goes slightly against the overall prediction for average to above average rainfall for many regions this month.

Long range models are showing the highs to be nearly continuous for the next two weeks and while showers and some rain may sneak in, the basic picture is that dry conditions will be dominant for the majority of the month.

Many readers have been telling that February was dry at their place and March appears to be shaping up the same way.

Although not all regions are the same – Gael, a,nz reader from Bay of Plenty, says her farm has already had more than the average for March, mostly caused by a trough that stalled over the western Bay at the start of the month.

Last weekend’s slow moving rain band has also topped up rain water tanks in central and western areas.

The recent rain has been enough to keep farming regions drought-free.  While March may not be quite as wet as the general Autumn prediction rainfall is still expected to be at least near-normal – but predicts overall figures may be on the drier side of average rather than wetter side.

The tropical cyclone wild card does, however, remain in play – meaning a significant tropical low could reverse the current trend.  Long range models used by show no tropical lows hitting New Zealand in the next 10 days, taking us through until March 20th.



westcoast on 10/03/2011 9:06pm

but the average to above average long term autumn prediction for rain is for the 3 months, march april and may
a dry march could be followed by a wetter than average april and may (likey due to the warm sea conditions are lingering la nina), to make the overall 3 months average to above average

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