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Conditions improving, but for how long?

The low that has brought thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail and strong winds this week will today finally leave our shores and head out into the Pacific Ocean.  By night time the low is likely to be well clear of New Zealand taking with it the violent weather that many in the North Island have seen over the past three days.

Behind the low is a high in the northern Tasman Sea which almost has a mirror image low running parallel to it in the Southern Ocean.  The squash zone between these two systems is fairly weak today but may build tomorrow.

That means we’re in for a typical spring weather pattern that will see west to south’west winds over much of the nation today turning more westerly tomorrow.

But it’s not long before a front from that low south of NZ will rise up bringing rain to the South Island.  By Saturday night the North Island will get the rain with conditions easing on Sunday.

Conditions may be quite chilly in the South Island as that southerly change arrives although at this stage nothing too severe is forecast.  Also, with any cold change at this time of year heavy showers or thunderstorms are a possibility.

MetService has low confidence of severe north west gales on Friday and Saturday about the lower North Island and low confidence for heavy rain along southern Westland and Fiordland for the same days.


SW on 30/09/2009 6:45pm

Can forget it if youre in Auckland or Northland,westerlies to gradually change easterly in the weekend with a slow moving shallow low developing over the north island according to most models.Saturday looks the best at this stage.

Jason on 1/10/2009 1:26am

For Thunderstorms and hail in Canterbury on Saturday afternoon/evening with the SW change.

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