It’s shaping up to be another hot day across the country with the temperature already at 27 degrees late this morning in Napier. By this afternoon places in Hawke’s Bay, especially inland, should reach into the lower 30s. Today’s high temperatures are being fuelled by a dry and quite breezy westerly across the region. Marlborough and East Cape should also see temperatures close to 30 degrees this afternoon.
Although we’re in a La Nina weather pattern, which usually means droughts are unlikely, the extra dry start to Summer means we should now consider conserving water. I’m not saying a drought is on the way, but for conditions to be so dry before Summer has even officially started suggests it wouldn’t hurt to think twice before washing your car, running a bath, or taking extra long showers.
But in true La Nina fashion a small low is forming in the sub tropics – and for those in northern New Zealand rain is definitely on the cards over the next 72 hours… but how much is the big question. MetService is predicting rain on Saturday in Auckland… while Weather.com is predicting a 70% chance of rain in the morning, dropping to 40% chance of showers in the afternoon. It might be rain…it might be drizzle… or the sun might be so strong the rain wont even make it to the ground.
Personally this type of weather system is the one I dislike forecasting the most. We have plenty of slow moving high pressure over us, and a small low forming to the north of us. Everything moves slowly and changes within hours. Saturday may be dry as a bone, but then again it might be the wettest day Aucklanders have had in weeks. So there could be some rain about this weekend north of Auckland…just how much will fall and for how long is still up in the air… literally! My gut instinct at this stage says it’ll be drier rather than wetter…but I’ll have more details on Friday morning.
In the South Island a weak cold front will move up Southland and Otago Friday afternoon and past Christchurch on Saturday morning. Temperatures will be significantly lower over this part of the country for the next few days, compared to what we saw yesterday.