For two thirds of the country the forecast is looking pretty certain – but 1 third of the country remains 50/50 as we issue our first Anzac Day forecast.

The areas of uncertainty stretch through Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato and Taranaki.  Why?  Because there’s a large high to the east and a very deep low in the sub-tropics – the zone where the rain is falling and where it stops will be right along the northern New Zealand along the west coast of the country.

Despite the uncertainty we think many dawn services will have dry, mild, weather.

We’re the first to admit that we aren’t highly confident with forecasts for this weekend due to the ‘touch and go’ nature of the high pressure system to the east of us – we hope to have higher confidence in our update around 4pm this afternoon.  Our confidence in the below forecast is rated as “moderate”.

• Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula:  Overcast with gusty easterlies – showers or patchy rain possible especially in Northland.
• Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Taupo:  Overcast with easterlies fairly gusty.  Risk of a shower, especially in Waikato.
• Taranaki:  Rain developing.
• Manawatu:  Dry at first, showers by evening.
• West Coast:  Rain.
• Southland:  Rain and gusty nor’easters.
• Rest of NZ:  Mostly cloudy but dry.  Winds possibly strong over Otago, Canterbury and Wellington.