Updated 3:06pm — This weekend is shaping up to be fairly cloudy but mild for many parts of New Zealand thanks to a sub-tropical low that will fall apart over the North Island overnight Saturday and across Sunday.
During the weekend the high that gave us a settled week this week will be blocking this low from moving much – coupled with the low weakening, the rain bands are likely to get squashed up alongside the blocking high and not move very fast. This will see a line of rain squeeze down the eastern coastline between the main ranges of New Zealand and the blocking high to the east.
Areas highest risk for rain are northern and eastern areas. The rain will ease in the north on Saturday then in central and eastern areas later on Sunday. A lot of the rain may fall as drizzle at first.
With winds mostly coming in from the northerly quarter you can expect a mild weekend.
As of 3pm Friday conditions weren’t as wet as predicted by most forecasters, as the low runs into high pressure, causing the low to crumble somewhat.
Rain was patchy across Northland and other northern areas with only drizzle in the forecast for Auckland this afternoon and maybe a few showers.
By Monday this system should be completely gone, well out to our east and only affecting the Chatham Islands.
Next week is a mixture of high air pressure, weak fronts, sunny spells and the odd shower. Sunniest weather next week will be along the eastern coastline and in the north for a while.
However by the end of the working week a high is expected to be in charge of the South Island’s weather as another sub-tropical low again hits northern New Zealand with warm nor’easters.
Computer models over the past two days have been unsure about this second low – but most updates pick some disturbance north of NZ late next week and possible next weekend.
Despite this second low it’s not expected to impact many regions south of Central Plateau.
We’ll update you on Monday about this next possible low – either way, it looks short lived for northern NZ but may bring another burst of rain, which will be wanted even more after this weeks low failed to deliver as much as needed. While our models have backed off a bit today, other models still show this low forming. One to watch – but at this stage nothing indicates severe weather from this potential low.