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A look into the week ahead, tropical low the main feature

The predicted low is now moving in a bit quicker then yesterday evenings initial story, rain potentially heavier and some rough weather looks to now catch northeastern parts of the South Island

A tropical low will dominate weather headlines this coming week. This will mainly be a North Island event. For the South Island the low doesn’t affect all regions with weather more interesting then usual, but there will be strong winds and some rain for the northeastern corner of the island. Potentially heavy rain about the Kaikoura coast.

Today we see light northwesterlies over the North Island and a southwesterly airflow for the South Island. The North Island can expect sunny conditions in the east, in the west south of the Waikato there may be the odd shower clearing this morning, further north expect mostly sunny weather and increasing high cloud. The high cloud is a result of the tropical low forming to the north of the country. Rain starts to move over far northeastern parts of Northland overnight as southeasterly winds pick up there.

The South Island will have light winds generally, some will see the southwesterly airflow resulting in a breeze at the surface, particularly the West Coast, Southland and Otago. Showers on the West Coast clear in the morning with areas of cloud breaking up this afternoon. Expect cloudy areas and some sun for other regions, some places may see more sun then others. During the afternoon a few isolated showers look possible anywhere from Southland, Otago and right through Canterbury, especially for inland areas then easing in the evening.

The incoming tropical low moves closer to the North Island tomorrow, skies will be fairly cloudy for most with strengthening southeasterlies in all areas, gusting to gale at times for many in the evening. Rain about Northland spreads into the Auckland area during the morning and heavy falls are possible. For the Bay Of Plenty, Waikato and Central North Island rain develops around midday with heavy falls possible from evening. Drizzle on the east coast turns to rain in the afternoon, heavy falls develop there in the evening. Rain moves into Wellington and the southwestern corner of the North Island in the evening.

For the South Island expect cloudy periods in the east, there may be a drizzle patch or two, especially in the foothills. Southland looks to get the best weather, sunny weather can be expected on the West Coast with high cloud thickening in the afternoon. Nelson and Marlborough will likely see some rain develop later in the evening or overnight. Southerly winds strengthen about the Marlborough coastline overnight

The low moves to the east of the North Island on Wednesday so the airflow will tilt more to the south or southwest for all regions. Expect rain or showers for the east and southwestern parts of the island. Showers clear further north. Most areas will expect strong to gale winds from the southwest then easing later in the day. Conditions are fairly average over the South Island although strong southerly winds and heavy rain potentially affect areas north of Banks Peninsula in the east, if any rain does reach this far south it will clear overnight with winds then easing.

Thursday sees easing conditions for all of the North Island as the low moves out to the east of the country, winds will be from the west or southwest for most. Mainly dry although the odd light shower could affect western regions. For the South Island cloud gradually breaks up in the east, and cloud increases in the west as a northerly airflow starts to develop, expect some drizzle about Fiordland.

And for Friday we can all look forward to a fast moving front coming out of the Tasman Sea, mild conditions and some high cloud could be expected in the east of both islands while rain and showers are more then likely in the west.

Images ; Wednesday 25th September 2013, 6pm MSLP / Rain map –

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson –


Tim on 23/09/2013 1:41am

Hi, I am scheduled to flight out to the States on Wednesday (from Auckland). Do you know if this storm is capable of cancelling flights?

WW Forecast Team on 23/09/2013 2:43am

While it will be a fairly big storm in size (re the low pressure system itself etc), you should be ok 🙂 Sometimes with these low systems Auckland lies in a little sheltered area. Not to say Auckland won’t feel the affects of this system but it will affect Northland, then Bay Of Plenty and East Cape more.


Guest on 22/09/2013 10:43pm

Will this storm be as bad as Saturday’s storm in Auckland? Lots of horses were injured on Sat night, panicking and going through fences etc. Want to be prepared for this one. thanks.

WW Forecast Team on 23/09/2013 2:40am

Hi there, this storm I don’t see as being majorly lightning active, if at all so you might not have to worry about that factor. It will be more wind and rain this time round.

Still, keep up to date with reading the weather items here and official warnings via metservice.



sw on 22/09/2013 7:06am

Always positions exact for maximum SW flow for Auckland.

WW Forecast Team on 22/09/2013 1:58pm

I wanted to ensure maximum pine needles 😀


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