Issued at 6:14pm 15/10/2026

Valid from 6:14pm 15/10/2026 to 1:00am 16/10/2026

A cold southerly wind change spreads northwards over central New Zealand, with cold air in the upper atmosphere making conditions unstable. A low risk of thunderstorms spreads northwards with the southerly change from inland Westland and Canterbury to much of Marlborough this afternoon, reaching the lower North Island this evening, as depicted on the chart. However, the risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate about northern parts of the Canterbury High Country this afternoon and about northern parts of Marlborough this evening, as depicted on the chart. Any thunderstorms that occur will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and possibly small hail. Meanwhile, a front preceded by a strong northerly flow moves eastwards over the North Island, bringing a low risk of thunderstorms to eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti this afternoon and early evening. This evening and tonight, a trough is forecast to move onto the west of the North Island from the Tasman Sea, bringing a low risk of thunderstorms from Auckland to North Taranaki. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere today.

Issued at 7:50pm 15/10/2026

Valid from 1:00am 16/10/2026 to 1:00pm 16/10/2026

A trough of low pressure moves northwards across the North Island during the morning, followed by a cold southerly flow. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for coastal parts of Waitomo and Waikato during the morning, as depicted on the chart. Any thunderstorms that occur will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and possibly small hail. A surrounding low risk of thunderstorms extends from Taranaki to Northland and across to the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty, as drawn on the chart, although this risk eases south of Auckland before dawn. Southerlies also bring a low risk of thunderstorms to the east of the North Island, although the risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate about the Wairoa District and Mahia Peninsula in the morning with brief heavy rain and small hail possible. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.

Issued at 9:21am 15/10/2026

Valid from 1:00pm 16/10/2026 to 1:00am 17/10/2026

Unstable southerlies bring a low risk of thunderstorms to Gisborne/Tairawhiti during the afternoon. A combination of wind convergence and cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere bring a low risk of thunderstorms to parts of the upper North Island during the afternoon and evening as depicted on the chart, and there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon for Coromandel Peninsula and Great Barrier Island with brief heavy rain and small hail possible. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.