Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 8:12am 3/02/2026
Valid from 8:12am 3/02/2026 to 1:00am 4/02/2026
During Tuesday, a low and associated cold air aloft move across central New Zealand, bringing rain or showers. There is low risk of thunderstorms from Taranaki to Wellington and Wairarapa and the upper South Island, as indicated on the chart. Over the upper South Island, however, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from this morning, extending onto the Kapiti Coast this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms are likely to bring heavy rain of up to 25 mm/h, and possibly small hail. There is also a risk of small localised tornadoes. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere during this period.
Issued at 9:31am 3/02/2026
Valid from 1:00am 4/02/2026 to 1:00pm 4/02/2026
There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
