Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 7:54am 24/01/2026
Valid from 7:54am 24/01/2026 to 1:00am 25/01/2026
Unstable west to southwesterlies affect central and northern New Zealand today, slowly easing at night. There is a broad low risk of thunderstorms over the North Island and far north of the South Island through the period. However, the risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate this morning and afternoon from Auckland to Taranaki, then spreading east to Taupo, Bay of Plenty and the Gisborne ranges this afternoon. These thunderstorms are likely to bring brief heavy rain of 10 to 15 mm/h, small hail, and strong wind gusts of 100 km/h. No thunderstorms or severe convection expected over the remainder of New Zealand.
Issued at 8:12am 24/01/2026
Valid from 1:00am 25/01/2026 to 1:00pm 25/01/2026
Showery westerlies affect the North Island throughout the morning. There is a low risk of a few thunderstorms about western areas from Manawatu to Northland, and the eastern Bay of Plenty ranges, before dawn and early morning. No thunderstorms or severe convection expected over the remainder of New Zealand.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
