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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 8:03am 16/06/2026

Valid from 8:03am 16/06/2026 to Midnight 16/06/2026

A front over the central North Island moves northeastwards across the island today. There is a low risk of a few thunderstorms for coastal areas from northern Northland to Taranaki and offshore Farewell Spit during the morning and about the Great Barrier Island and northern Coromandel Peninsula this morning and afternoon as indicated on the chart. A trough lingers over the central North Island during the second half of today and there is a low risk of a few embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for central areas of the North Island from Taumarunui to Gisborne, including Taupo, eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Taihape as indicated on the chart. An active front moves onto southern New Zealand on Tuesday night and there is a moderate risk of a few embedded thunderstorms for Fiordland, coastal Southland and Stewart Island from evening as depicted on the chart. These thunderstorms may bring rainfall areas of 10 to 20 mm/h and possible small hail up to 10 mm in diameter. There is a broader low risk of thunderstorms extending further north and east as shown on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this time.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 9:22am 16/06/2026

Valid from Midnight 16/06/2026 to Midday 17/06/2026

The front continues to move north across the South Island during Wednesday morning. There is a low risk of a few thunderstorms for the Westland district, Fiordland, southern Southland, Clutha and eastern Otago before dawn, and for the Grey and Buller Districts and northwest Tasman for a time in the morning as indicated on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this time.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.