Issued at 7:51am 10/10/2026

Valid from 7:51am 10/10/2026 to 1:00am 11/10/2026

A broad trough moves slowly east onto New Zealand bringing periods of rain and showers to many areas. A low risk of thunderstorms develops early afternoon about much of the interior and southeast of the South Island, as depicted on the chart. This risk eases in the evening. For inland Buller and Grey, Canterbury, North Otago and Dunedin, the risk of thunderstorms increases to moderate for a time during the afternoon and early evening. These thunderstorms may be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20 mm per hour and small hail. At night a front moving onto some western areas is expected to bring a low risk of thunderstorms to northern Northland, northern Taranaki and northern Tasman. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.

Issued at 8:16am 10/10/2026

Valid from 1:00am 11/10/2026 to 1:00pm 11/10/2026

An unsettled northwest flow affects the North Island and upper South Island, with a low risk of thunderstorms spreading east throughout the period. The risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate however for North Taranaki and Waitomo before dawn and early morning, with localised rainfall rates of 10 to 20 mm per hour possible. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.