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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 7:36am 8/11/2026

Valid from 7:36am 8/11/2026 to 1:00am 9/11/2026

Daytime heating and wind convergence is expected to generate showers over inland parts of the South Island. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening for Central Otago, the Queenstown Lakes District north of Queenstown, and the Canterbury High Country about and south of Lake Tekapo. A low risk of thunderstorms surrounds the moderate risk area during this time, and extends northwards to include the remainder of the Canterbury High Country, and southeastern parts of Marlborough, as depicted on the chart. Any thunderstorms that occur will be accompanied by heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h, and possibly small hail. Also, although not shown on the chart, there is a low risk of thunderstorms for the Chatham Islands till early evening. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during Sunday.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 10:52am 8/11/2026

Valid from 1:00am 9/11/2026 to 1:00pm 9/11/2026

A warm, moist and unstable air mass moves southwards onto the north of the North Island bringing periods of rain. There is a low risk of embedded thunderstorms after dawn from northern Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula northwards, as indicated on the chart. However, for Northland and northern Auckland (including Great Barrier Island) the risk is considered moderate. Thunderstorms will enhance local rainfall rates, up to 25 mm per hour, and may generate small hail. There is also a low risk that they may produce localised downpours (rainfall rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour). There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or severe convection elsewhere during this time.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 11:00am 8/11/2026

Valid from 1:00pm 9/11/2026 to 1:00am 10/11/2026

A low risk of embedded thunderstorms spreads southwards across most of the north of the North Island during the second half of Monday, as indicated on the chart. The risk is moderate for Waitomo, Taumarunui, western Taupo, western Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Auckland and Northland. There is also a low risk of localised downpours in these areas. Thunderstorms will enhance localised rainfall rates up to 25 mm per hour and may produce small hail. Localised downpours will generate rainfall rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or severe convection elsewhere during this time.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.