Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 7:01am 16/07/2026
Valid from 7:01am 16/07/2026 to Midnight 16/07/2026
A weakening front is expected to move northwards over the North Island today. Another front over the southern South Island should move off towards the Chatham Islands. There is a low risk of thunderstorms about Northland this morning and afternoon. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms about Kapiti, Horowhenua, Manawatu, coastal Whanganui and southern Taranaki this morning and about northern Taranaki and Waitomo this afternoon. Not shown on the chart, there is a low risk of thunderstorms about the Chatham Islands this afternoon and early evening. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or severe convection over the rest of New Zealand.
Issued at 10:08am 16/07/2026
Valid from Midnight 16/07/2026 to Midday 17/07/2026
There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
