Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 7:57am 16/02/2026
Valid from 7:57am 16/02/2026 to 1:00am 17/02/2026
A deep low to the east of Wairarapa is expected to move slowly southwards today, and a strong south to southwest flow remains over much of the country. There is a low risk of thunderstorms (embedded in bands of heavy rain) this morning and afternoon over the lower North Island and Kaikoura Coast, as depicted on the chart. In addition, although not drawn on the chart, there is a low risk of thunderstorms for the Chatham Islands late morning and afternoon. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.
Issued at 8:23am 16/02/2026
Valid from 1:00am 17/02/2026 to 1:00pm 17/02/2026
There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
