Issued at 7:36am 23/11/2025
Valid from 7:36am 23/11/2025 to 1:00am 24/11/2025
Light winds and humid conditions exist over much of the country. A front, moving northwards, should move onto the South Island around midday and reach Canterbury tonight. Afternoon and evening convection is expected in several places due to the humid conditions and sea breezes, with a low risk of thunderstorms about eastern Northland, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne/Tairawhiti, Hawke's Bay, Taihape, Marlborough and parts of Nelson/Tasman. For eastern Bay of Plenty and much of Gisborne/Tairawhiti and Hawke's Bay, the risk of thunderstorms is moderate for a time in the afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour and small hail. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for much of Marlborough bringing localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20 mm per hour and small hail. As the front moves over eastern Otago, South and Mid Canterbury this afternoon and evening, there is a generally low risk of thunderstorms. However, for some inland places of Otago and South Canterbury the risk of thunderstorms is moderate and there could be localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20 mm per hour and small hail. The risk of thunderstorms or severe convection over the rest of New Zealand is minimal.

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.