Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 7:58am 3/06/2026
Valid from 7:58am 3/06/2026 to Midnight 3/06/2026
Shallow low is forecast to move east over the waters to the north of Bay of Plenty, allowing a moderate risk of thunderstorms about eastern Bay of Plenty north of about the Motu River, including parts of Gisborne/Tairawhiti east of Te Araroa this morning and afternoon with associated heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour. In addition, there is a broader low risk about and east of Whakatane, including the ranges of Gisborne/Tairawhiti. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.
Issued at 10:11am 3/06/2026
Valid from Midnight 3/06/2026 to Midday 4/06/2026
A north to northwest flow spreads over the country, with a front forecast to reach western parts of both islands late morning. This front brings a moderate risk of thunderstorms to coastal parts of the West Coast and Fiordland, excluding the Grey District during the morning, with associated heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour possible. In addition there is a low risk for Northland, coastal Waitomo, Taranaki north of Eltham, also the western Tasman and the remainder of the West Coast and Fiordland as indicated on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
