Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 7:50am 19/01/2026
Valid from 7:50am 19/01/2026 to 1:00am 20/01/2026
A moist unstable easterly flow affects the far north of New Zealand. For Northland there is a low risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain this afternoon. This evening and at night there is moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain there, 10 to 25 mm/h. There is also a moderate risk of Severe thunderstorms with localised downpours bringing 25 to 40 mm/h or possibly more. A Watch for heavy rain is in force. No thunderstorms or significant convection is expected in other areas of New Zealand.
Issued at 7:53pm 19/01/2026
Valid from 1:00am 20/01/2026 to 1:00pm 20/01/2026
A moist unstable easterly flow affects the far north of New Zealand. Before dawn and early morning there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for Northland with heavy rain, 10 to 25 mm/h. There is also a moderate risk of localised downpours bringing 25 to 40 mm/h or possibly more. During the morning this moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain, 10 to 25 mm/h spreads to Auckland north of Auckland City and Great Barrier Island as indicated on the chart. There is also a moderate risk of localised downpours bringing 25 to 40 mm/h or possibly more. A Watch and Warning for heavy rain is in force. No thunderstorms or significant convection is expected in other areas of New Zealand.
Issued at 8:53am 19/01/2026
Valid from 1:00pm 20/01/2026 to 1:00am 21/01/2026
A moist unstable easterly flow affects the far north of New Zealand. Tuesday afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for central and southern Northland, Auckland north of Auckland City, Great Barrier Island and the north of Coromandel Peninsula. These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain, 10 to 25 mm/h. There is a low risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain in the afternoon for a slightly broader area including the remainder of Coromandel Peninsula and extending slightly farther north into Northland. In the evening and at night there is a low risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain for central and southern Northland, Auckland north of Auckland City, Great Barrier Island and Coromandel Peninsula. No thunderstorms or significant convection is expected in other areas of New Zealand.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
