Issued at 7:22am 30/07/2026

Valid from 7:22am 30/07/2026 to Midnight 30/07/2026

A front is expected to move east over the South Island today to reach Taranaki and Marlborough Sounds by midnight. A series of troughs follow this front affecting Fiordland and Westland during the afternoon and evening. The leading front brings a moderate risk of thunderstorms to Fiordland and Westland this morning and afternoon then Grey and Buller into the evening and night, bringing localised heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/hr. Troughs behind this front, bring a moderate risk of thunderstorms about Fiordland in the afternoon, which reach Westland and Stewart Island during the evening and night, bringing the risk of localised heavy rain of 10 to 15 mm/hr and small hail. These thunderstorms may also be squally about coastal parts of Stewart Island, Fiordland and Westland with gusts of 80 to 90 km/hr. In addition, there is a broader low risk area just east of the Alps during the period, Stewart Island during the afternoon, then about Marlborough Sounds and Taranaki at night. For remaining parts of Aotearoa New Zealand there is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during the period.

Issued at 10:16am 30/07/2026

Valid from Midnight 30/07/2026 to Midday 31/07/2026

The leading front is expected to move east over the North Island in the morning, with a following trough passing over during the late morning and afternoon. A broad cold front spreads strong southerlies over the South Island. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about western parts of Taranaki, Kapiti and Horowhenua, Buller, Grey, Westland during the period, and about Fiordland and Stewart Island before sunrise. These thunderstorms bring the risk of localised heavy rain of 10 to 15 mm/h, but up to 20 mm/h about Kapiti, Horowhenua and Taranaki before dawn, also gusts of up to 80 to 90 km/h and small hail. There is a broader low risk extending further west about the South Island and lower North Island, including the southern coast of the South Island, the far north, and around East Cape as indicated on the chart. For the remainder of Aotearoa New Zealand there is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.

Issued at 7:41pm 30/07/2026

Valid from Midday 31/07/2026 to Midnight 31/07/2026

The cold front and strong southerly change continue north over the South Island to reach the lower North Island at night. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about Kapiti and Horowhenua, also coastal Manawatu, Whanganui and south Taranaki during the period, also around northern Westland, Grey, Buller and western Taranaki which eases in the south in the evening. These thunderstorms may be squally gusting 80 to 100 km/h with small hail, with localised rainfall of 10 to 15 mm/hr possible. There is a broader low risk area extending on either side of these regions as indicated on the chart. For the remainder of Aotearoa New Zealand there is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.