Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 7:39am 2/06/2026
Valid from 7:39am 2/06/2026 to Midnight 2/06/2026
A front moves eastwards over the North Island today, followed by a disturbed northwest flow. There is a low risk of thunderstorms but moderate risk of localised downpours for Bay of Plenty east of Tauranga until late afternoon. Localised downpours could produce rainfall rates to 25 to 40 mm/h. There is a low risk of thunderstorms for Northland from afternoon, and for Auckland, Great Barrier Island and Coromandel Peninsula until late evening. For Bay of Plenty from Tauranga westwards, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taupo, Tongariro National Park and Taranaki north of Eltham, there is a low risk of thunderstorms this morning and afternoon, with a low risk of localised downpours this morning. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms for Taranaki from Eltham southwards, Whanganui, Taihape and Manawatu this afternoon. Meanwhile, another front spreads a southerly change up the South Island. This afternoon and early evening there is a low risk of thunderstorms for Westland, plus and inland parts of Canterbury and North Otago, as drawn on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand today.
Issued at 7:22pm 2/06/2026
Valid from Midnight 2/06/2026 to Midday 3/06/2026
A shallow low is forecast to move southeastwards over northern New Zealand during the morning, bringing scattered heavy showers and a low risk of thunderstorms to Northland before dawn, and to Great Barrier Island, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato and Bay of Plenty throughout the morning. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during Wednesday morning.
Issued at 7:23pm 2/06/2026
Valid from Midday 3/06/2026 to Midnight 3/06/2026
Wind convergence about the ranges of Gisborne/Tairawhiti is expected to produce a few heavy showers with a low risk of thunderstorms during Wednesday afternoon. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
