Issued at 8:20am 10/11/2026

Valid from 8:20am 10/11/2026 to 1:00am 11/11/2026

A low risk of thunderstorms and localised downpours covers most of the North Island, along with northwest Tasman, as indicated on the chart. However, the risk of thunderstorms and localised downpours for Northland is moderate until evening but for Auckland, Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty west of Te Puke and Waikato is moderate until midnight. Thunderstorms will generate heavy rain up to 25 mm per hour, while localised downpours will bring rainfall rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour. Broad-scale Severe Weather Watches for heavy rain and a risk of localised downpours are in force for many northern regions of the North Island. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for Buller, Grey, Westland, Fiordland, the Canterbury High Country, the Queenstown Lakes District, and Southland. However, for Southland from Invercargill westwards and southeastern Fiordland the risk is considered moderate during this time. Thunderstorms will likely generate localised heavy rain of 10 to 20 mm per hour. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.

Issued at 8:32pm 10/11/2026

Valid from 1:00am 11/11/2026 to 1:00pm 11/11/2026

An active front moves slowly east over the northeast of the North Island during the first half of Wednesday and there is an associated moderate risk of thunderstorms and localised downpours for Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato and western Bay of Plenty before dawn, and moderate risk of thunderstorms with low risk of localised downpours for eastern Bay of Plenty throughout the morning. A low risk of thunderstorms covers most of the North Island as indicated on the chart. Thunderstorms will generate heavy rain up to 25 mm per hour, while localised downpours will bring rainfall rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour. Another front associated with a low in the Tasman Sea approaches the South Island during the morning. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the west of the South Island from northwest Tasman to northern Fiordland during the morning, with a broad area of low risk extending slightly further east as depicted on the chart. Thunderstorms will likely generate localised heavy rain of 10 to 20 mm per hour There is also a low risk of thunderstorms from late morning for Canterbury Plains south of Timaru, eastern Otago and Southland due to low level heating and sea breezes convergences setting up inland. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.

Issued at 11:00am 10/11/2026

Valid from 1:00pm 11/11/2026 to 1:00am 12/11/2026

The front lies slow moving over eastern Bay of Plenty during the second half of Wednesday and there is an associated moderate risk of thunderstorms and a low risk of localised downpours there. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms from Northland south to inland areas of central North Island as depicted on the chart during Wednesday afternoon and evening as depicted on the chart. Thunderstorms will generate heavy rain up to 25 mm per hour, while localised downpours will bring rainfall rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour. A disturbed northwest flow continues to affect western areas of the South Island during the second half of Wednesday and there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the west of the South Island from northwest Tasman to northern Fiordland, with a broad area of low risk extending further east as drawn on the chart. Thunderstorms will likely generate localised heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm per hour There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms for Canterbury Plains south of Timaru, eastern Otago, Southland and southeastern Fiordland during the afternoon and evening with rainfall intensities up to 25 mm per hr. However, some of these thunderstorms may become severe and there is also a low risk of severe thunderstorms with localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.