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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 8:22am 22/09/2026

Valid from 8:22am 22/09/2026 to Midnight 22/09/2026

An active front moves northwards over the South Island today. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for southern and central Fiordland this morning, extending into northern Fiordland and far southern Westland this afternoon, with a low risk further north up the west coast of the island as the front moves north as indicated on the chart. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms for Stewart Island and coastal Southland this morning, extending into southern and central Southland, Clutha and Dunedin, this afternoon then reducing to low this evening. A low risk of thunderstorms also extends further north through northern Southland, Central and North Otago and the Canterbury coast and Plains from Christchurch southwards this afternoon and evening, increasing to moderate for a time late afternoon and early evening in North Otago and near the coast in Canterbury south of the Rangitata River as indicated on the chart. This low risk may also extend into the night about Banks Peninsula. These thunderstorms if they occur may be accompanied by strong wind gusts 80 to 100 km/h, heavy rain 5 to 15 mm/h and small hail. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 7:19pm 22/09/2026

Valid from Midnight 22/09/2026 to Midday 23/09/2026

A weakening front moves across the southwest of the North Island before dawn, bringing showers, and a low risk of a few thunderstorms to Taranaki and coastal Waitomo. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 9:02am 22/09/2026

Valid from Midday 23/09/2026 to Midnight 23/09/2026

A trough followed by a southeast change moves over the northeast of the North Island during Wednesday afternoon, and there is an associated low risk of thunderstorms for the far north of Gisborne/Tairawhiti and Bay of Plenty east of Kawerau as indicated on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.