Issued at 5:15pm 5/07/2026

Valid from 5:15pm 5/07/2026 to Midnight 5/07/2026

Update at 5:15pm: added squally thunderstorms to Northland for this evening and the overnight period with strong gusts of 90 to 110 km/h. A low deepens to the west of the North Island, slowing the progress of a front over Bay of Plenty and Gisborne. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about eastern Bay of Plenty during the afternoon, bringing localised heavy rain of 20 to 30 mm per hour. In addition, a moderate risk of squally thunderstorms develops about coastal parts of northern Northland during the evening and night, bringing localised heavy rain of 10 to 20 mm per hour, strong winds gusts of 90 to 110 km/h and the chance of a small localised tornado. Outside these areas, there is a low risk of thunderstorms about coastal Westland and southern Buller until early evening. For northern Wellington and the Kapiti Coast there is a low risk during the afternoon, also north Taranaki and coastal parts of Waitomo and Waikato. A low risk also covers eastern parts of Bay of Plenty, and Gisborne. During the afternoon a low risk develops on a southerly change moving north through Canterbury and a second low risk area develops through coastal Dunedin and North Otago during the evening and at night as indicated on the chart. There is a minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection over other parts of New Zealand.

Issued at 8:54pm 5/07/2026

Valid from Midnight 5/07/2026 to Midday 6/07/2026

An active front moves quickly east across the upper North Island during Monday morning, followed by a strong and unstable northwesterly flow bringing heavy showers and hail to many coastal areas. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about coastal parts of Northland, the Great Barrier Island and Coromandel Peninsula during the morning, and these thunderstorms may bring heavy rain of 10-20mm/h, hail 5 to 15 mm in diameter, strong winds gusts of 90-100 km/h and the chance of a small tornado. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms for coastal Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne after dawn and these thunderstorms will be accompanied by heavy rain of 10-20mm/h and the chance of a small tornado. There is a broader low risk of thunderstorms for the upper North Island as indicated on the chart with a risk of some small hail. There is a minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection over other parts of New Zealand.

Issued at 10:26am 5/07/2026

Valid from Midday 6/07/2026 to Midnight 6/07/2026

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for coastal Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne during the afternoon with a risk of small hail. This is surrounded by a broader low risk for the rest of Bay of Plenty and Gisborne as indicated on the chart. For much of the upper North Island, there is a low risk of thunderstorms with small hail during the afternoon, but for Northland this risk persists until night. Finally, there is a rain band expected to move through Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa later in the day and there is a low risk of embedded thunderstorms as shown on the chart. There is a minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection over other parts of New Zealand.