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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 8:15am 24/06/2026

Valid from 8:15am 24/06/2026 to Midnight 24/06/2026

A low lies to the west of the North Island, with it's associated fronts moving over the upper North Island. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms and localised downpours for Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Whakatane this evening and at night. For Auckland north of Harbour Bridge, Great Barrier Island and Coromandel Peninsula, there is a low risk of thunderstorms this morning and afternoon along with a moderate risk of localised downpours. These thunderstorms may be accompanied by heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/h, with downpours increasing rainfall rates to 25 to 40 mm/h in localised places. Localised downpours may occur with or without thunderstorms. There is low risk of thunderstorms for Northland this morning, increasing to moderate from afternoon, but becoming confined mainly to the coast from evening. There is a low risk of thunderstorms and localised downpours for Auckland about and south of Harbour Bridge this afternoon, for Waikato and Waitomo during the afternoon and evening, and for inland Bay of Plenty and the far north of Taupo this evening and at night. The is also a low risk of thunderstorms for Bay of Plenty about and east of Whakatane and far northern Gisborne at night. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 10:18am 24/06/2026

Valid from Midnight 24/06/2026 to Midday 25/06/2026

A complex low moves onto the North Island from the west during Thursday morning, with temperatures aloft cooling. For coastal Bay of Plenty east of about Te Puke and the far north of Gisborne/Tairawhiti, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms before dawn along with a moderate risk of localised downpours. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms before dawn in northern and western parts of Northland. These thunderstorms may be accompanied by heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/h, with downpours increasing rainfall rates to 25 to 40 mm/h in localised places. Localised downpours may occur with or without thunderstorms. A broad area of low risk of thunderstorms covers the upper North Island for a the whole period from coastal and far northern Waikato, Bay of Plenty and central Gisborne/Tairawhiti northwards as indicated on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.