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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 7:56am 6/11/2026

Valid from 7:56am 6/11/2026 to 1:00am 7/11/2026

A warm and humid airmass over central and northern New Zealand brings unstable showery conditions today, especially this afternoon and evening. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/h extending from Northland to northern Manawatu and the Tararua District this afternoon and evening, as indicated on the chart. In addition, there is a moderate risk of SEVERE thunderstorms for Northland and Auckland this afternoon and evening, bringing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in place. There is a low risk of SEVERE thunderstorms bringing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h to parts of the North Island from Waikato to northern Manawatu and the Tararua District this afternoon and evening, as shown on the chart. A broader area with a low risk of thunderstorms covers the North Island from Manawatu and the east coast of Wairarapa northwards today. Over the South Island, there is a low risk of thunderstorms about northwest Tasman and the far north of Buller this morning and tonight. There is a low risk of thunderstorms with afternoon and evening convection about inland parts of Nelson and Marlborough, as drawn on the chart. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms for Southland east of Gore, Clutha, Dunedin, and North Otago this afternoon and evening. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand today.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 10:24am 6/11/2026

Valid from 1:00am 7/11/2026 to 1:00pm 7/11/2026

A warm and humid airmass remains over central and northern New Zealand, with embedded fronts and troughs bringing periods of rain or showers to most places. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for the northern half of the North Island, as depicted on the chart. Thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h. There is also a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms occurring in this area, which could bring localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in force. A low risk of thunderstorms spreads southwards later in the morning to include the remainder of the North Island plus northern parts of the South Island, as drawn on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during Saturday morning.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.