Issued at 7:55am 7/12/2025

Valid from 7:55am 7/12/2025 to 1:00am 8/12/2025

A front is expected to move slowly northwards over Fiordland today, to lie over southern Westland by the end of the day, with an associated moderate risk of thunderstorms with localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25 mm/h. A low risk of thunderstorms extends into the far west of Southland and Stewart Island. During this afternoon and evening, wind convergences should bring showers to the ranges of Gisborne/Tairawhiti and northern Hawke's Bay. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms there, with localised heavy rain and hail of 10 to 20 mm diameter possible, along with a low risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS producing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. A low risk of thunderstorms extends into inland eastern Bay of Plenty and to the southern ranges of Hawke's Bay. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this time.

Issued at 8:49am 7/12/2025

Valid from 1:00am 8/12/2025 to 1:00pm 8/12/2025

The front moves northwards across Westland and onto Buller during the morning, with an associated low risk of thunderstorms. A trough follows this front across the lower South Island before dawn, with a low risk of thunderstorms over Fiordland and Stewart Island. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this time.

Issued at 9:21am 7/12/2025

Valid from 1:00pm 8/12/2025 to 1:00am 9/12/2025

A combination of afternoon and early evening heating and wind convergence bring a low risk of a few thunderstorms to parts of Nelson, Marlborough, Hawke's Bay and northeastern Taupo, as depicted on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this time.