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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 7:43am 25/01/2026

Valid from 7:43am 25/01/2026 to 1:00am 26/01/2026

During this afternoon and evening, there is a low risk of isolated thunderstorms about the Westland and Grey Districts, and also about the Alps. No thunderstorms or severe convection expected over the remainder of New Zealand.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 8:47am 25/01/2026

Valid from 1:00am 26/01/2026 to 1:00pm 26/01/2026

A showery west to southwest flow affects central New Zealand during the morning, while temperatures cool in the upper atmosphere. There is a low risk of a few thunderstorms from South Taranaki to Manawatu, and the northwest of the South Island as depicted on the chart. No thunderstorms or severe convection expected over the remainder of New Zealand.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 9:10am 25/01/2026

Valid from 1:00pm 26/01/2026 to 1:00am 27/01/2026

A combination of wind convergence and afternoon and early evening heating is expected to bring a low risk of a few thunderstorms to central and eastern parts of the country from southern Gisborne/Tairawhiti to Marlborough and eastern Tasman, also across the Southern Alps and inland parts of Westland, Grey and Buller. The risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate however for Central Hawke's Bay and eastern parts of the Tararua District and Wairarapa, and for much of Marlborough. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 20 mm/h and small hail. No thunderstorms or severe convection expected over the remainder of New Zealand.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.