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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 1:43pm 11/11/2026

Valid from 1:43pm 11/11/2026 to 1:00am 12/11/2026

Updated at 1:40pm to include moderate risk of severe thunderstorms about eastern Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, inland Waikato, and inland Bay of Plenty west of Te Puke including Rotorua, and northern Taupo, with localised downpours of 25-40 mm per hour and hail 10-20mm. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued to cover this risk. A front moves slowly through the Bay of Plenty today, and there is an associated moderate risk of thunderstorms and a low risk of localised downpours through eastern parts of the region. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms from Northland southwards to inland areas of central North Island as depicted on the chart during this afternoon and evening, with a low risk of localised downpours through eastern Northland and Auckland including Great Barrier Island, as well as Coromandel Peninsula. Thunderstorms will generate heavy rain up to 25 mm per hour, while localised downpours will bring rainfall rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour. A disturbed northwest flow continues to affect western areas of the South Island today, and there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the west of the South Island from Buller to northern Fiordland, with a broad area of low risk extending further east as drawn on the chart. Thunderstorms will likely generate localised heavy rain of 10 to 20 mm per hour. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms for Canterbury Plains south of Timaru, eastern Otago, Southland and southern Fiordland during the afternoon and evening with rainfall intensities up to 25 mm per hour, with a low risk of severe thunderstorms and localised downpours. However, there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms about southern Southland and inland parts of Clutha and Dunedin in the afternoon and evening, with localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued to cover this risk. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 7:39pm 11/11/2026

Valid from 1:00am 12/11/2026 to 1:00pm 12/11/2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 9:28am 11/11/2026

Valid from 1:00pm 12/11/2026 to 1:00am 13/11/2026

There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.