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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 8:11am 7/04/2026

Valid from 8:11am 7/04/2026 to Midnight 7/04/2026

A front moves slowly southwards over Northland today, and generally the risk of thunderstorms is considered low in Northland throughout the day, however there is a low risk of downpours north of Kaikohe this evening and tonight. A lower risk of thunderstorms extends to Auckland and the north of the Coromandel Peninsula periods this evening and tonight. For the west of the Tasman District, and areas of Westland and Fiordland near the coast, there is a low risk of thunderstorms tonight. There is a minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection over other parts of New Zealand during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 10:51am 7/04/2026

Valid from Midnight 7/04/2026 to Midday 8/04/2026

A front moves slowly south over the north of the North Island Wednesday morning, bringing rain with heavy falls, possible downpours and thunderstorms. In the southern half of Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula for the whole period, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms bringing rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h and localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. For Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taupo, and Bay of Plenty there is a low risk of thunderstorms during the morning, but a moderate risk of localised downpours with rates of 25 to 40 mm/h. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms and downpours for Northland before dawn. For the South Island, a front from over the southern Tasman Sea is expected to bring a moderate risk of thunderstorms to Fiordland through the period, and to Westland during the morning. These thunderstorms are likely to bring heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h, and for Fiordland also small hail. There is also a lower risk of thunderstorms for the Tasman District and northwestern Marlborough. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected in other areas of the country during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 11:11am 7/04/2026

Valid from Midday 8/04/2026 to Midnight 8/04/2026

The front in the north continues to move slowly over the North Island. During the afternoon and evening in the Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui and Taupo, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with rain intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h, and also a moderate risk of localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. For Taihape, inland Taranaki and Whanganui, Manawatu, the Tararua District and in the south of Hawke's Bay, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening bringing localise heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/h. For most remaining areas of the North Island there is a low risk of thunderstorms. For the South Island, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in Fiordland in the afternoon, and in Westland during the afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms are expected to bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25 m/h, and also for Fiordland small hail. Additionally there is a low risk of thunderstorms for Buller in the evening and at night.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.