Issued at 7:56am 14/01/2026

Valid from 7:56am 14/01/2026 to 1:00am 15/01/2026

A warm moist air mass at low levels along with relatively cool temperatures aloft brings unstable conditions to many areas, especially parts of the North Island. For the North Island from this afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato Taupo, eastern Taihape, the south of Hawke's Bay, and western Bay of Plenty including Rotorua. These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain, 10 to 25 mm per hour. There is a low risk of localised downpours for these areas boosting rainfall rates to 25 to 40 mm per hour. There is a low risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain in a slightly broader area including the north of Taranaki and eastern Bay of Plenty. For the South Island this evening and at night, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms for the far north of Buller and the far west of Nelson. These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain, 10 to 25 mm/h. There is a low risk in a broader area extending farther south into Buller and east across Nelson and over the Marlborough Sounds as indicated on the chart. This afternoon and evening there is a low risk of thunderstorms for inland Otago and the southern Alps from about Mt. Cook southwards. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.

Issued at 8:57pm 14/01/2026

Valid from 1:00am 15/01/2026 to 1:00pm 15/01/2026

A moist unstable air-mass affects the North Island and the far north of the South Island. For Bay of Plenty including Rotorua there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain, 10 to 25 mm/h and a low risk of localised downpours boosting rainfall intensities to 25 to 40 mm/h. For Taranaki, Wellington, Marlborough north of Ward, northwest Tasman and the Nelson City District there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain and a moderate risk of Severe thunderstorms bringing localised downpours with rainfall rates of 25 to 40 mm/h. For the remainder of the upper North Island there is a low risk of thunderstorms before dawn but a moderate risk in the morning with rainfall rates of 10 to 25 mm/h. For Taihape to Kapiti Coast, the south of Wairarapa and the far north of the South Island there is a low risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain as depicted on the chart. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.

Issued at 10:14am 14/01/2026

Valid from 1:00pm 15/01/2026 to 1:00am 16/01/2026

The moist unstable air-mass continues to affect the North Island. From Taranaki to Bay of Plenty northwards there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain. There is also a moderate risk of Severe thunderstorms with localised downpours bringing rainfall rates of 25 to 40 mm/h in those areas. For inland Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, the north of Wairarapa northern Kapiti, Manawatu and Whanganui there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain and a low risk of localised downpours boosting rainfall rates to 25 to 40 mm/h. For the south of Wairarapa and Kapiti, Wellington and the Marlborough sounds there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain, 10 to 25 mm/h in the afternoon. Convergence at low levels is likely to generate showers over Fiordland in the afternoon and evening, and there is then a low risk of thunderstorms there. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain from late afternoon for the Chatham Islands. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this period.