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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 8:06am 7/02/2025

Valid from 8:06am 7/02/2025 to 1:00am 8/02/2025

Wind convergence and daytime heating are expected to bring scattered heavy showers to the central North Island this afternoon and early evening. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from the far south of Waikato and Bay of Plenty, across to Taupo, northern Taihape and the far east of Taranaki, with localised heavy rain and small hail. Note, some of these thunderstorms may be slow moving and SEVERE with localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h, and a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is in force. A broader low risk of thunderstorms extends across surrounding parts of the central North Island as depicted on the chart. Also a few heavy showers are possible about the ranges of Nelson, Buller, inland Marlborough and north Canterbury this afternoon and early evening, with an associated low risk of thunderstorms. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected over the remainder of New Zealand.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 8:38am 7/02/2025

Valid from 1:00am 8/02/2025 to 1:00pm 8/02/2025

An unstable easterly flow affects the far north of Northland before dawn, with a low risk of a few thunderstorms there. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected over the remainder of New Zealand.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 9:15am 7/02/2025

Valid from 1:00pm 8/02/2025 to 1:00am 9/02/2025

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.