Issued at 8:36am 22/01/2026

Valid from 8:36am 22/01/2026 to 1:00am 23/01/2026

There is mostly a low risk of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon about the central North Island, but for areas of Hawke's Bay and the Tararua District the risk extends into the evening, and there is a moderate risk of isolated thunderstorms for areas of Hawke's Bay near the coast this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms could bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/h. For the South Island, there is mostly a low risk of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening about the ranges of Marlborough, the Tasman District and along the Main Divide to Fiordland, Southland and Otago. However, about inland Southland, inland Fiordland, the Southern Lakes, and the ranges of southern Westland, the risk of thunderstorms increases to moderate. These thunderstorms if they could occur could bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h. For the Chatham Islands, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from this evening bringing heavy rain of 15 to 25 mm/h, and also a risk of downpours of 24 to 40 mm/h. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere during this period.

Issued at 10:32am 22/01/2026

Valid from 1:00am 23/01/2026 to 1:00pm 23/01/2026

Instability increases over the country Friday morning. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms developing about inland areas of south and mid Canterbury during the morning, bringing localised heavy with rates of 10 to 25 mm/h. A lower risk of thunderstorms covers the remainder of Canterbury and northern parts of Otago. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms developing about northern Westland, Buller and the west of the Tasman District in the morning. For the Chatham Islands, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms before dawn, bringing heavy rain of 15 to 25 mm/h, and also a risk of downpours of 24 to 40 mm/h. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected in other areas of New Zealand during this period.

Issued at 10:53am 22/01/2026

Valid from 1:00pm 23/01/2026 to 1:00am 24/01/2026

The risk of thunderstorms increases Friday afternoon. There is a high risk of thunderstorms in Canterbury during Friday afternoon and evening, and a moderate risk of thunderstorms in Marlborough, and inland of Tasman/Nelson. These thunderstorms have the potential to bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/h, hail and in Canterbury the risk of a tornado. Additionally, there is a risk that some of the thunderstorms in Canterbury could become SEVERE, bringing localised downpours of 24 to 40 mm/h and hail larger than 20 mm in diameter, and it is likely a Severe Thunderstorms Watch will be issued Friday morning. There is also moderate risk of thunderstorms about northern Westland, Buller and in the west of the Tasman District, during the afternoon and again at night. These thunderstorms are expected to bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25 mm/h, hail, and even the risk of a small tornado. A lower risk covers most of the South Island north of Southland throughout the period, and in the west of the North Island from Waitomo southwards in the evening and at night.