Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 10:16am 27/03/2026
Valid from 10:16am 27/03/2026 to 1:00am 28/03/2026
Chart updated 10:15am to remove the risk of downpours from the Coromandel Peninsula. An active front moves eastwards across the central North Island today, bringing periods of heavy rain as detailed in the latest SEVERE WEATHER WARNING. There is an associated low risk of thunderstorms with this front as depicted on the chart, however the risk of thunderstorms in western and central Bay of Plenty is considered moderate this morning. In addition, there is a moderate risk of LOCALISED DOWNPOURS of 25 to 40 mm/h for central and western Bay of Plenty this morning. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection over the remainder of New Zealand during this period.
Issued at 8:08pm 27/03/2026
Valid from 1:00am 28/03/2026 to 1:00pm 28/03/2026
A weakening front drifts eastwards across the Bay of Plenty and far north of Gisborne/Tairawhiti, bringing a low risk of thunderstorms. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection over the remainder of New Zealand during this period.
Issued at 9:20am 27/03/2026
Valid from 1:00pm 28/03/2026 to 1:00am 29/03/2026
There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
