Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 7:29am 3/11/2026
Valid from 7:29am 3/11/2026 to 1:00am 4/11/2026
A slow-moving front lies over the South Island today. There is a low risk of thunderstorms from Kaikoura to Mid Canterbury during the afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, the risk of severe convection or thunderstorms is minimal.
Issued at 10:10am 3/11/2026
Valid from 1:00am 4/11/2026 to 1:00pm 4/11/2026
A warm trough moves over Northland during the morning, and brings a low risk of thunderstorms as indicated on the chart. There is a minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during the first half of Wednesday.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
