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Winter outlook

La Nina is gone and neutral conditions have returned to the tropical Pacific…and are expected to continue through much of the winter.  An El Nino may develop, but that is not expected until the end of the season.

As long as that holds true, we can expect a fairly average winter in terms of temperature.

NIWA says that seasonal temperatures are likely to be near average overall for all regions of the country.  Frosts and snowfalls typical of winter will still occur from time to time.

NIWA also says that winter rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are likely to be below normal in the eastern South Island.  Normal or below normal conditions are expected for Nelson and Marlborough, as well as the west and north of the North Island.

Near normal winter rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are predicted for the South Island West Coast, and the eastern North Island.   River flows are predicted to be below normal for the north and east of the South Island, near normal in the eastern North Island, and normal or below normal elsewhere.

Homepage photo/ Russ Dubois

By WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph





Sylvie on 27/03/2021 4:27pm

Painting outdoor mural in Kaitaia for 3 months from late April. What is rain forecast for this period?

WW Forecast Team on 27/03/2021 9:56pm

Hi Sylvie, we don’t really provide 3 month forecasts that far out due to the lack of accuracy in those forecasts, but generally speaking Kaitaia has been leaning warmer and drier than average for the past two years now with no immediate sign of that pattern reversing. All the best for your big job ahead – sounds amazing!
– WW

Kathleen Farquhar on 1/06/2012 6:45am

What do you think the chances are of another polar blast similar to last year? I read an article about it a few weeks back but by the sounds of this article the chances have gone down to 5% again??

WW Forecast Team on 1/06/2012 5:53pm

 Hi Kathleen

We think there is a low to moderate chance this winter as a few raw southerly changes are likely to affect eastern and southern parts of the country.




sw on 31/05/2012 8:16pm

Hope not an el nino,not here.

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